ALD ASX Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Ampol Limited · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

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Latest close 39.90 AUD
3.2% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 21.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 94.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.2%, after a 17.8% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 56/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high.

Setup score 82 out of 100
Latest Close 39.90 AUD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 3.2% latest completed week
4W Return 17.8% short-term follow-through
12W Return 16.7% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 84.6% 44 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.4x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 20-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 3 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 3.2% Latest completed week; four-week move 17.8%. Indicator stack 92/84 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 58.71% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. News sentiment 56/100 30 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 21.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 94.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.2%, after a 17.8% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.4x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.8212-week average 0.90

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure9/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.82Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers33 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 3 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 17.8% over four weeks, 16.7% over 12 weeks, and 50.3% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 20 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W3.2%
4W17.8%
12W16.7%
26W41.0%
52W50.3%
Active trend streak20 weeks
Active weeks in one year44
Trend breadth84.6%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.52Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change314.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership23.35Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change152.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 85% Model confidence 69%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength21/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 80; rank 1 is best.
Value9/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 92; rank 1 is best.
Quality8/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 93; rank 1 is best.
Momentum93/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 8; rank 1 is best.
Growth2/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 99; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework17/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
111.8x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.3x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
15.6x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
0.7%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
8.5%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
1.6%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
0.3%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
5.4%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-10.1%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-32.7%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-59.3%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
3/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
2.6%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.1%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
2.7%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
4.7x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment56/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 30 relevant articles.

9 positive · 20 neutral · 1 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-2.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher16 of 2610 weeks finished lower.
Best week+12.0%Week of 6 Mar.
Worst week-9.0%Week of 19 Jun.
Latest week+3.2%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains7
Modest gains9
Flat weeks0
Modest losses7
Sharp losses3
Recent vol4.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.7%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split29/23Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.4% / -2.3%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

IndustryAU Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
4-week rank2 / 2
Group average25.5%
Trend breadth100.0%
Trend100.0%active weekly trend signals
MD100.0%positive activity pressure
RS100.0%positive relative leadership

Four-week leaders

VEA · ASX33.2%ALD · ASX17.8%
08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape81/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 81/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis77/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 9/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.82; 3 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 58.71%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 58.71% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors29/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 10 SVQF17/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 217.0 of 262 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment56/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 30 relevant articles.

Ampol Shares Up 20% on Month, New High Brings Overbought Signal Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 202639.90 AUD3.2%32.97 AUD30.11 AUD0.5223.356.0MOn
24 Jul 202638.67 AUD3.0%32.69 AUD30.03 AUD0.2523.245.8MOn
17 Jul 202637.55 AUD6.4%32.45 AUD29.97 AUD-0.1820.206.8MOn
10 Jul 202635.28 AUD4.1%32.24 AUD29.91 AUD-0.4413.595.3MOn
3 Jul 202633.88 AUD4.1%32.13 AUD29.86 AUD-0.249.258.2MOn
26 Jun 202632.56 AUD-1.8%32.05 AUD29.80 AUD0.036.51773.6KOn
19 Jun 202633.16 AUD-9.0%31.97 AUD29.76 AUD0.328.202.5MOn
12 Jun 202636.45 AUD1.2%31.87 AUD29.72 AUD0.6819.81492.4KOn
5 Jun 202636.02 AUD7.3%31.67 AUD29.66 AUD0.7021.683.9MOn
29 May 202633.56 AUD-5.3%31.46 AUD29.60 AUD0.6612.80955.1KOn
22 May 202635.44 AUD1.1%31.34 AUD29.57 AUD0.8720.775.5MOn
15 May 202635.05 AUD2.5%31.19 AUD29.52 AUD0.9220.584.7MOn
8 May 202634.20 AUD-4.5%30.99 AUD29.47 AUD0.9116.795.3MOn
1 May 202635.82 AUD4.7%30.83 AUD29.42 AUD0.8723.164.2MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.