VEA ASX Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Viva Energy Group Limited · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

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Latest close 2.85 AUD
14.0% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 29.7% above the Trend Line and sits at 98.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 14.0%, after a 33.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 58/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high.

Setup score 73 out of 100
Latest Close 2.85 AUD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 14.0% latest completed week
4W Return 33.2% short-term follow-through
12W Return 28.4% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 48.1% 25 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 2.6x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 4-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • No major top-level risk cluster is currently dominant.
What to watch next
  • Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 14.0% Latest completed week; four-week move 33.2%. Indicator stack 40/61 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. News sentiment 58/100 42 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 29.7% above the Trend Line and sits at 98.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 14.0%, after a 33.2% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 2.6x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.5712-week average 0.69

12-week confirmation

Trend active11/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure4/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership11/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.57Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 33.2% over four weeks, 28.4% over 12 weeks, and 39.6% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 4 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W14.0%
4W33.2%
12W28.4%
26W61.5%
52W39.6%
Active trend streak4 weeks
Active weeks in one year25
Trend breadth48.1%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.09Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change110.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership33.53Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change1067.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 79% Model confidence 64%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength16/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 85; rank 1 is best.
Value10/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 91; rank 1 is best.
Quality3/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 98; rank 1 is best.
Momentum87/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 14; rank 1 is best.
Growth10/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 91; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework7/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.1x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
60.6x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
1.5%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
12.1%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
0.9%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
0.5%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
2.6%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-5.2%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
766.9%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
1/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
2.7%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.1%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
35.2x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment58/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 42 relevant articles.

15 positive · 22 neutral · 5 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-0.7%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.8%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher17 of 268 weeks finished lower.
Best week+18.6%Week of 6 Mar.
Worst week-11.2%Week of 8 May.
Latest week+14.0%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains9
Modest gains8
Flat weeks1
Modest losses4
Sharp losses4
Recent vol6.8%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split28/23Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.7% / -3.9%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

IndustryAU Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
4-week rank1 / 2
Group average25.5%
Trend breadth100.0%
Trend100.0%active weekly trend signals
MD100.0%positive activity pressure
RS100.0%positive relative leadership

Four-week leaders

VEA · ASX33.2%ALD · ASX17.8%
08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape66/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 66/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis66/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 11/12, activity pressure 4/12, relative leadership 11/12.

Activity pressure 0.57; No reversal markers Factors26/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 11 SVQF7/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 243.0 of 262 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment58/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 42 relevant articles.

European earnings growth estimate rises to 20.8% as energy profits surge Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 20262.85 AUD14.0%2.20 AUD2.44 AUD0.0933.5356.8MOn
24 Jul 20262.50 AUD6.8%2.17 AUD2.44 AUD-0.3820.6626.9MOn
17 Jul 20262.34 AUD4.0%2.16 AUD2.44 AUD-0.7112.9629.5MOn
10 Jul 20262.25 AUD5.1%2.15 AUD2.44 AUD-0.908.6120.0MOn
3 Jul 20262.14 AUD5.9%2.14 AUD2.45 AUD-0.932.8723.7MOff
26 Jun 20262.02 AUD-7.3%2.14 AUD2.45 AUD-0.82-2.136.2MOn
19 Jun 20262.18 AUD-3.1%2.14 AUD2.45 AUD-0.604.786.7MOn
12 Jun 20262.25 AUD0.4%2.14 AUD2.46 AUD-0.298.555.2MOn
5 Jun 20262.24 AUD5.7%2.12 AUD2.46 AUD-0.0210.554.5MOn
29 May 20262.12 AUD-8.2%2.11 AUD2.46 AUD0.213.6926.7MOn
22 May 20262.31 AUD1.3%2.10 AUD2.47 AUD0.4814.2318.7MOn
15 May 20262.28 AUD2.7%2.08 AUD2.47 AUD0.6413.5223.1MOn
8 May 20262.22 AUD-11.2%2.06 AUD2.47 AUD0.809.4338.3MOn
1 May 20262.50 AUD4.2%2.05 AUD2.48 AUD0.9323.8229.7MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.