UPS NYSE Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

United Parcel Service Inc · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics

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Latest close 104.2 USD
-9.2% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is -1.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 64.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -9.2%, after a -5.8% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 47/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 54/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 3d.

Setup score 55 out of 100
Latest Close 104.2 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -9.2% latest completed week
4W Return -5.8% short-term follow-through
12W Return 5.2% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 59.6% 31 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.4x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 17-week active streak.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
  • Activity pressure is constructive, supporting the smart-money activity read.
What could go wrong
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • The latest week was a sharp negative move.
  • Latest weekly return ranks in the weaker part of its sector group.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -9.2% Latest completed week; four-week move -5.8%. Indicator stack 78/63 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Volatility 47/100 conviction; expected move 9.0%. News sentiment 54/100 22 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 3d Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is -1.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 64.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -9.2%, after a -5.8% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.4x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.7912-week average 0.59

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure7/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership7/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.79Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -5.8% over four weeks, 5.2% over 12 weeks, and 31.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 17 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-9.2%
4W-5.8%
12W5.2%
26W1.2%
52W31.9%
Active trend streak17 weeks
Active weeks in one year31
Trend breadth59.6%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.64Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change21.8%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-1.81Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-137.5%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 96%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength56/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 45; rank 1 is best.
Value36/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 65; rank 1 is best.
Quality67/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 34; rank 1 is best.
Momentum68/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 33; rank 1 is best.
Growth28/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 73; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework60/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
18.6x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
1.1x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
10.3x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
10.1%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
17.8%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
8.9%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
13.8%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
15.7%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-2.7%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-10.4%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-5.3%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
5.7%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-0.1%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
2.0x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

UPS shows volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.72, expected move of 9.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction47/100
Expected move9.0%
Put/call volume0.72
Pressure19
Speculation43
Volatility92
Trend agreement80
Open options detail
Insider activity7 / 13

7 acquisitions and 13 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment54/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 22 relevant articles.

8 positive · 14 neutral · 0 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move9.0%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-12.2%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+10.5%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-11.7%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week-9.2%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains4
Modest gains10
Flat weeks0
Modest losses8
Sharp losses4
Recent vol4.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split29/23Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.2% / -2.6%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape58/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 58/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis71/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 7/12, relative leadership 7/12.

Activity pressure 0.79; No reversal markers Factors56/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 72 SVQF60/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 409.5 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options57/100

UPS shows volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.72, expected move of 9.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 9.0% Sentiment54/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 22 relevant articles.

UPS Says China-to-US Trade Lane Has Returned to Growth Insiders7 / 13

7 acquisitions and 13 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings3d

Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.

 Research flow1 items

1 recent research articles and 0 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026104.2 USD-9.2%105.4 USD111.5 USD0.64-1.8138.6MOn
24 Jul 2026114.8 USD-2.5%105.2 USD111.8 USD0.709.5023.3MOn
17 Jul 2026117.7 USD4.7%104.7 USD112.1 USD0.6911.6622.2MOn
10 Jul 2026112.5 USD1.6%104.0 USD112.4 USD0.575.1621.2MOn
3 Jul 2026110.7 USD2.3%103.5 USD112.6 USD0.524.8214.0MOn
26 Jun 2026108.1 USD3.1%102.9 USD112.9 USD0.434.5226.6MOn
19 Jun 2026104.9 USD-3.0%102.4 USD113.2 USD0.22-1.1527.9MOn
12 Jun 2026108.1 USD-0.4%102.0 USD113.4 USD-0.072.6024.8MOn
5 Jun 2026108.5 USD1.7%101.4 USD113.7 USD-0.403.4328.1MOn
29 May 2026106.7 USD5.6%100.8 USD113.9 USD-0.51-0.9827.4MOn
22 May 2026101.0 USD3.9%100.4 USD114.2 USD-0.51-5.0825.3MOn
15 May 202697.26 USD-1.8%99.75 USD114.5 USD-0.47-8.0627.6MOn
8 May 202699.08 USD-6.3%99.26 USD114.8 USD-0.39-6.4943.6MOn
1 May 2026105.8 USD0.5%98.59 USD115.1 USD-0.501.8435.6MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.