Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
UPS options intelligence
United Parcel Service Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
44
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 00:00 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
UPS currently carries bullish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
2.9%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.56
Call-side skew
Trend fit
72
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-9.2%
RS -1.8
Expected move
2.9%
Put-call volume
0.56
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.26
Max pain
105.00
Underlying
104.22
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1062
Research Brief
UPS has a bullish chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 101.23–107.21; The largest call open-interest concentration is 105.00; the largest put concentration is 90.00. The most active strike by current volume is 95.00.
Priced range101.23–107.21
Call concentration105.00
Put concentration90.00
Max pain reference105.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 101.23 to 107.21. Max pain at 105.00 sits inside that range, 0.7% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
101.23104.22 ± 2.99107.21
Confirmation level
A close beyond 107.21 or below 101.23 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 44/100
Pressure is 31/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure31 × 42%
+12.9
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement72 × 26%
+18.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility30 × 10%
+3.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 105.00; the largest put concentration is 90.00. The most active strike by current volume is 95.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2715
90.00-13.6%
5
127
95.00-8.8%
1
40
99.00-5.0%
27
246
100.00-4.0%
23
98
102.00-2.1%
17
86
103.00-1.2%
201
163
104.00-0.2%
237
358
105.000.7%
819
96
106.001.7%
150
28
107.002.7%
363
174
108.003.6%
184
82
109.004.6%
174
331
110.005.5%
228
36
113.008.4%
138
1
115.0010.3%
393
0
118.0013.2%
430
0
120.0015.1%
520
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.26
7 Aug
7d
0.26
14 Aug
14d
0.28
21 Aug
21d
0.28
28 Aug
28d
0.28
4 Sep
35d
0.28
11 Sep
42d
0.26
18 Sep
49d
0.27
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
85
91
93
94
96
98
100
102
103
105
107
109
111
112
114
116
118
120
121
123
125
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1062 / 1062
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.9M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+31
1W price-9.2%
Call premium62%
Put premium38%
Notional split
C 62% / P 38%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
72/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1328 contracts traded, $413656 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$413656
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 217 contracts traded, $400205 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$400205
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 691 contracts traded, $349496 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$349496
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 388 contracts traded, $270130 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$270130
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1877 contracts traded, $168060 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$168060
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close104.22
1W-9.2%
RS-1.8
Fair value-6.5%
Options pressure31
Speculation41
Volatility30
Trend fit72
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:03
Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 8.0%
30 Jul 10:02
Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 9.0%
31 Jul 10:01
Volatility
Pressure 19
Move 9.0%
1 Aug 23:00
Bullish
Pressure 31
Move 2.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 4 · OI 2715
Strike91.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts112
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.88
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts100
Avg IV0.26
Put-call1.07
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts96
Avg IV0.28
Put-call0.64
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts100
Avg IV0.28
Put-call0.64
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts100
Avg IV0.28
Put-call0.09
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.28
Skew0.02
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.24
Skew-0.19
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.32
Skew0.08
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.33
Skew0.08
4 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.30
Skew0.07
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractUPS260807P00095000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike95.00
Volume693
OI127
IV0.28
ContractUPS260918C00115000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike115.00
Volume680
OI4173
IV0.24
ContractUPS260807C00105000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike105.00
Volume483
OI819
IV0.26
ContractUPS260918C00110000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike110.00
Volume406
OI5187
IV0.23
ContractUPS261120C00120000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike120.00
Volume396
OI5141
IV0.27
ContractUPS260807C00107000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike107.00
Volume318
OI363
IV0.26
ContractUPS260821C00112000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike112.00
Volume314
OI812
IV0.25
ContractUPS260904C00113000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike113.00
Volume301
OI43
IV0.25
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.