COF NYSE Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Capital One Financial Corporation · Financial Services · Credit Services

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Latest close 209.0 USD
3.0% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 4.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 41.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.0%, after a 1.9% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 37/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 53/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 80d.

Setup score 48 out of 100
Latest Close 209.0 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 3.0% latest completed week
4W Return 1.9% short-term follow-through
12W Return 10.8% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 51.9% 27 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.0x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
  • Next-week expectancy is positive at 56.64% based on similar historical setup states.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 3.0% Latest completed week; four-week move 1.9%. Indicator stack 29/70 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 56.64% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Bullish 37/100 conviction; expected move 4.5%. News sentiment 53/100 65 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 80d Next report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 4.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 41.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.0%, after a 1.9% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.0x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.3012-week average 0.12

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure8/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.30Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 1.9% over four weeks, 10.8% over 12 weeks, and 2.3% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W3.0%
4W1.9%
12W10.8%
26W-3.7%
52W2.3%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year27
Trend breadth51.9%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.97Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change36.0%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-8.03Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change26.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 30 Jun 2026 Field coverage 94% Model confidence 94%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength44/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 57; rank 1 is best.
Value68/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 33; rank 1 is best.
Quality26/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 75; rank 1 is best.
Momentum25/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 76; rank 1 is best.
Growth23/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 78; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
50.7x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
1.8x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
13.1x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
29.7%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
47.3%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
3.3%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
42.3%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
2.4%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
1.5%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
3.4%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
4.9%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-3.4x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

COF shows bullish options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.31, expected move of 4.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction37/100
Expected move4.5%
Put/call volume0.31
Pressure54
Speculation42
Volatility40
Trend agreement6
Open options detail
Insider activity13 / 7

13 acquisitions and 7 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 65 relevant articles.

16 positive · 43 neutral · 6 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings80dNext report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move4.5%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-18.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher15 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+9.1%Week of 19 Jun.
Worst week-7.3%Week of 24 Apr.
Latest week+3.0%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains3
Modest gains12
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses5
Recent vol3.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split30/22Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.8% / -3.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape45/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 45/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis28/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 8/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.30; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 56.64%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 56.64% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors40/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 16 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options42/100

COF shows bullish options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.31, expected move of 4.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 4.5% Sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 65 relevant articles.

Capital One SVP Timothy Golden sells $735,757 in stock Insiders13 / 7

13 acquisitions and 7 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings80d

Next report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.

 Research flow1 items

0 recent research articles and 1 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026209.0 USD3.0%199.2 USD168.7 USD0.97-8.0322.3MOff
24 Jul 2026202.8 USD-2.5%200.4 USD168.1 USD0.82-10.0624.7MOff
17 Jul 2026208.0 USD3.2%201.9 USD167.5 USD0.85-8.6422.5MOff
10 Jul 2026201.5 USD-1.8%203.0 USD166.9 USD0.84-13.2222.4MOff
3 Jul 2026205.1 USD0.5%204.2 USD166.2 USD0.71-10.9412.7MOff
26 Jun 2026204.0 USD1.2%205.0 USD165.6 USD0.59-9.9324.1MOff
19 Jun 2026201.5 USD9.1%205.4 USD164.9 USD0.37-13.4727.7MOff
12 Jun 2026184.7 USD2.2%205.6 USD164.3 USD0.12-20.2525.3MOff
5 Jun 2026180.7 USD-3.9%206.4 USD163.8 USD-0.04-21.9123.6MOff
29 May 2026187.9 USD0.1%207.5 USD163.3 USD-0.13-21.2122.6MOff
22 May 2026187.8 USD0.8%208.5 USD162.8 USD-0.26-20.4722.1MOff
15 May 2026186.4 USD-1.2%209.7 USD162.2 USD-0.40-20.7123.1MOff
8 May 2026188.7 USD-1.3%210.4 USD161.6 USD-0.48-19.9422.1MOff
1 May 2026191.1 USD0.3%210.8 USD160.9 USD-0.65-17.3819.2MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.