Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
COF options intelligence
Capital One Financial Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
37
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 16:10 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
COF currently carries bullish options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
3.4%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.31
Call-side skew
Trend fit
7
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+3.0%
RS -8.0
Expected move
3.4%
Put-call volume
0.31
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.31
Max pain
207.50
Underlying
209.01
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1058
Research Brief
COF has a bullish chain read with 37/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 201.99–216.03; The largest call open-interest concentration is 210.00; the largest put concentration is 210.00. The most active strike by current volume is 212.50.
Priced range201.99–216.03
Call concentration210.00
Put concentration210.00
Max pain reference207.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 201.99 to 216.03. Max pain at 207.50 sits inside that range, 0.7% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
201.99209.01 ± 7.02216.03
Confirmation level
A close beyond 216.03 or below 201.99 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 37/100
Pressure is 54/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure54 × 42%
+22.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement7 × 26%
+1.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility35 × 10%
+3.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 210.00; the largest put concentration is 210.00. The most active strike by current volume is 212.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
49
185.00-11.5%
4
268
187.50-10.3%
0
88
190.00-9.1%
12
180
192.50-7.9%
2
320
195.00-6.7%
69
124
197.50-5.5%
79
155
200.00-4.3%
120
64
202.50-3.1%
40
105
205.00-1.9%
151
63
207.50-0.7%
583
345
210.000.5%
1080
23
212.501.7%
66
195
215.002.9%
423
1
217.504.1%
60
3
220.005.3%
236
1
225.007.7%
87
0
230.0010.0%
48
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.31
7 Aug
7d
0.31
14 Aug
14d
0.31
21 Aug
21d
0.30
28 Aug
28d
0.30
4 Sep
35d
0.30
11 Sep
42d
0.31
18 Sep
49d
0.33
18 Dec
140d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
170
175
180
183
188
190
193
198
200
205
208
210
215
218
223
225
228
233
235
245
250
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1058 / 1058
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4.4M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+54
1W price+3.0%
Call premium82%
Put premium18%
Notional split
C 82% / P 18%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
7/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 297 contracts traded, $1.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$1.1M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 177 contracts traded, $722645 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$722645
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 2439 contracts traded, $584565 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$584565
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 2934 contracts traded, $214758 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$214758
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 400 contracts traded, $169592 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$169592
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close209.01
1W+3.0%
RS-8.0
Fair value+23.9%
Options pressure54
Speculation42
Volatility35
Trend fit7
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:02
Bullish
Pressure 20
Move 5.2%
30 Jul 10:01
Bullish
Pressure 21
Move 3.6%
30 Jul 23:02
Bullish
Pressure 30
Move 3.9%
31 Jul 13:07
Bullish
Pressure 39
Move 3.9%
31 Jul 13:52
Bullish
Pressure 29
Move 4.0%
31 Jul 14:39
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 2.9%
31 Jul 15:13
Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 2.6%
31 Jul 15:36
Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 2.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts94
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.19
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts94
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.69
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts100
Avg IV0.31
Put-call1.17
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.22
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.06
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.34
Skew0.03
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.32
Skew0.06
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.34
Skew0.05
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.34
Skew0.06
4 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.34
Skew0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCOF260807C00212500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike212.50
Volume2216
OI66
IV0.32
ContractCOF260807C00217500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike217.50
Volume2188
OI60
IV0.30
ContractCOF260807C00220000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike220.00
Volume656
OI236
IV0.30
ContractCOF260918C00220000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike220.00
Volume300
OI2956
IV0.29
ContractCOF260807P00202500
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike202.50
Volume298
OI64
IV0.34
ContractCOF260807P00192500
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike192.50
Volume295
OI180
IV0.35
ContractCOF260821C00230000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike230.00
Volume276
OI818
IV0.30
ContractCOF260821P00185000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike185.00
Volume230
OI469
IV0.37
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
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Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.