BTAI NASDAQ Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

BioXcel Therapeutics Inc · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

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Latest close 0.85 USD
-4.5% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -36.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 1.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.5%, after a -35.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 13d.

Setup score 17 out of 100
Latest Close 0.85 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return -4.5% latest completed week
4W Return -35.3% short-term follow-through
12W Return -29.4% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 19.2% 10 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.4x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Next-week expectancy is negative at 35.75% based on similar historical setup states.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -4.5% Latest completed week; four-week move -35.3%. Indicator stack 11/60 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Negative 35.75% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. News sentiment 50/100 52 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 13d Next report is scheduled for 11 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -36.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 1.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.5%, after a -35.3% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.4x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.0612-week average 0.03

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure9/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.06Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -35.3% over four weeks, -29.4% over 12 weeks, and -53.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-4.5%
4W-35.3%
12W-29.4%
26W-53.4%
52W-53.2%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year10
Trend breadth19.2%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.62Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-10.0%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-60.43Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-38.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 67% Model confidence 64%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength71/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 30; rank 1 is best.
Value60/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 41; rank 1 is best.
Quality58/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 43; rank 1 is best.
Momentum60/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 41; rank 1 is best.
Growth60/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 41; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
38.5x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
-52.5%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
27.8%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-8550.7%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
-8438.4%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-63.3%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
3/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
-
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-1.4x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity8 / 12

8 acquisitions and 12 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 52 relevant articles.

7 positive · 36 neutral · 9 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings13dNext report is scheduled for 11 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-89.5%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility12.9%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher13 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+13.2%Week of 1 May.
Worst week-40.8%Week of 10 Jul.
Latest week-4.5%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains8
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses2
Sharp losses11
Recent vol12.9%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol29.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split21/31Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew17.1% / -9.9%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape20/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 20/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis25/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 9/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.06; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 35.75%

Next-week expectancy is negative with a 35.75% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors62/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 50 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 52 relevant articles.

BioXcel Therapeutics Inc (BTAI) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis Insiders8 / 12

8 acquisitions and 12 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings13d

Next report is scheduled for 11 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 20260.85 USD-4.5%1.33 USD18.23 USD0.62-60.431.6MOff
17 Jul 20260.89 USD8.6%1.36 USD19.21 USD0.96-59.719.2MOff
10 Jul 20260.82 USD-40.8%1.39 USD20.34 USD1.03-64.8916.2MOff
3 Jul 20261.38 USD5.3%1.43 USD21.39 USD0.99-40.522.1MOff
26 Jun 20261.31 USD9.2%1.45 USD22.42 USD0.69-43.572.8MOff
19 Jun 20261.20 USD5.3%1.48 USD23.10 USD0.47-51.032.8MOff
12 Jun 20261.14 USD3.2%1.51 USD25.02 USD0.24-52.632.9MOff
5 Jun 20261.10 USD-5.6%1.52 USD27.08 USD0.08-53.403.2MOff
29 May 20261.17 USD3.5%1.55 USD29.18 USD0.04-53.394.8MOff
22 May 20261.13 USD-0.9%1.58 USD31.11 USD-0.17-53.862.4MOff
15 May 20261.14 USD-6.6%1.62 USD33.04 USD-0.38-53.192.0MOff
8 May 20261.22 USD1.7%1.66 USD35.62 USD-0.57-50.403.7MOff
1 May 20261.20 USD13.2%1.70 USD38.43 USD-0.74-48.944.3MOff
24 Apr 20261.06 USD-7.8%1.74 USD40.80 USD-0.79-54.673.6MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.