HTH NYSE Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Hilltop Holdings Inc · Financial Services · Financial Conglomerates

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Latest close 39.08 USD
1.0% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 5.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 89.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.0%, after a -2.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 46/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 54/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 84d.

Setup score 59 out of 100
Latest Close 39.08 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 1.0% latest completed week
4W Return -2.2% short-term follow-through
12W Return 3.3% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 100.0% 52 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.0x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 56-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 1.0% Latest completed week; four-week move -2.2%. Indicator stack 100/50 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Bullish 46/100 conviction; expected move 5.0%. News sentiment 54/100 59 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 84d Next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 5.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 89.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.0%, after a -2.2% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.0x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.8612-week average 0.66

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure6/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership6/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.86Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -2.2% over four weeks, 3.3% over 12 weeks, and 30.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 56 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W1.0%
4W-2.2%
12W3.3%
26W10.6%
52W30.9%
Active trend streak56 weeks
Active weeks in one year52
Trend breadth100.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.25Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-54.3%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership2.36Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-63.8%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 97% Model confidence 97%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength81/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 20; rank 1 is best.
Value75/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 26; rank 1 is best.
Quality34/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 67; rank 1 is best.
Momentum78/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 23; rank 1 is best.
Growth8/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 93; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework76/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
14.1x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
1.4x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
14.1x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
-0.6%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
79.8%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
13.5%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
-1.1%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
5.6%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
2.9%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
12.8%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-104.3%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
1.9%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
8.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
10.0%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
3.8x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

HTH shows bullish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 5.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction46/100
Expected move5.0%
Put/call volume0.00
Pressure100
Speculation2
Volatility34
Trend agreement0
Open options detail
Insider activity20 / 0

20 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment54/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 59 relevant articles.

14 positive · 44 neutral · 1 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings84dNext report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move5.0%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-3.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher13 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+6.4%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-5.5%Week of 13 Mar.
Latest week+1.0%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains4
Modest gains9
Flat weeks0
Modest losses12
Sharp losses1
Recent vol2.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/24Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.9% / -2.0%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape63/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 63/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis65/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 6/12.

Activity pressure 0.86; 2 reversal markers Factors66/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 7; Small Cap Core rank 20 SVQF76/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 242.0 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options44/100

HTH shows bullish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 5.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 5.0% Sentiment54/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 59 relevant articles.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. $JPM Stock Position Reduced by Hilltop Holdings Inc. Insiders20 / 0

20 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings84d

Next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 202639.08 USD1.0%37.11 USD31.46 USD0.252.361.4MOn
17 Jul 202638.68 USD1.0%36.95 USD31.40 USD0.520.921.2MOn
10 Jul 202638.30 USD-1.3%36.81 USD31.33 USD0.67-1.511.1MOn
3 Jul 202638.82 USD-2.8%36.69 USD31.28 USD0.711.261.0MOn
26 Jun 202639.94 USD5.5%36.53 USD31.21 USD0.556.501.8MOn
19 Jun 202637.86 USD-1.5%36.33 USD31.15 USD0.08-1.221.9MOn
12 Jun 202638.44 USD2.9%36.18 USD31.09 USD-0.241.291.0MOn
5 Jun 202637.37 USD-0.9%36.02 USD31.03 USD-0.46-0.871.5MOn
29 May 202637.72 USD1.3%35.86 USD30.98 USD-0.51-2.391.3MOn
22 May 202637.22 USD2.6%35.66 USD30.94 USD-0.48-2.291.4MOn
15 May 202636.29 USD-3.9%35.53 USD30.88 USD-0.44-3.921.7MOn
8 May 202637.76 USD-0.2%35.37 USD30.84 USD-0.370.101.5MOn
1 May 202637.83 USD3.8%35.16 USD30.78 USD-0.322.571.7MOn
24 Apr 202636.46 USD-3.3%34.99 USD30.72 USD-0.42-0.211.9MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.