RCAT NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Red Cat Holdings Inc · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

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Latest close 7.53 USD
-1.4% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -35.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 13.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.4%, after a -27.9% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 38/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 53/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 5d.

Setup score 21 out of 100
Latest Close 7.53 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -1.4% latest completed week
4W Return -27.9% short-term follow-through
12W Return -27.4% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 67.3% 35 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.6x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -1.4% Latest completed week; four-week move -27.9%. Indicator stack 37/25 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Bullish 38/100 conviction; expected move 15.5%. News sentiment 53/100 15 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 5d Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -35.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 13.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.4%, after a -27.9% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.6x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.1512-week average 0.27

12-week confirmation

Trend active3/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership2/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.15Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -27.9% over four weeks, -27.4% over 12 weeks, and -8.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-1.4%
4W-27.9%
12W-27.4%
26W-44.2%
52W-8.2%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year35
Trend breadth67.3%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.24Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-36.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-36.28Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-116.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 30 Apr 2026 Field coverage 82% Model confidence 82%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength2/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 99; rank 1 is best.
Value17/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 84; rank 1 is best.
Quality1/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 100; rank 1 is best.
Momentum19/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 82; rank 1 is best.
Growth90/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
13.8x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
-12.7%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
7.4%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-118.7%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
-157.0%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-61.6%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
224.2%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
1/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
1.2x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

RCAT shows bullish options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.50, expected move of 15.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction38/100
Expected move15.5%
Put/call volume0.50
Pressure41
Speculation42
Volatility96
Trend agreement7
Open options detail
Insider activity10 / 10

10 acquisitions and 10 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 15 relevant articles.

6 positive · 5 neutral · 4 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings5dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move15.5%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-59.9%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility18.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher8 of 2617 weeks finished lower.
Best week+54.1%Week of 29 May.
Worst week-18.9%Week of 26 Jun.
Latest week-1.4%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains4
Modest gains4
Flat weeks1
Modest losses2
Sharp losses15
Recent vol18.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol14.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split23/28Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew13.4% / -9.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape26/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 26/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis21/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 3/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 2/12.

Activity pressure 0.15; No reversal markers Factors8/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 59; Small Cap Core rank 84 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options42/100

RCAT shows bullish options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.50, expected move of 15.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 15.5% Sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 15 relevant articles.

Safe Pro Group (NASDAQ: SPAI) AI Threat Detection Technology Validated at Red Cat Innovation Event Insiders10 / 10

10 acquisitions and 10 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings5d

Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 20267.53 USD-1.4%11.72 USD6.11 USD-1.24-36.2834.9MOff
24 Jul 20267.64 USD0.0%11.78 USD6.07 USD-1.13-35.2840.5MOff
17 Jul 20267.64 USD-13.5%11.80 USD6.02 USD-1.13-36.7136.4MOff
10 Jul 20268.83 USD-15.4%11.81 USD5.98 USD-1.01-30.6040.8MOff
3 Jul 202610.44 USD12.5%11.79 USD5.93 USD-0.91-16.7659.7MOff
26 Jun 20269.28 USD-18.9%11.71 USD5.87 USD-0.74-25.2246.7MOff
19 Jun 202611.44 USD2.3%11.64 USD5.82 USD-0.33-11.9658.7MOff
12 Jun 202611.18 USD-11.8%11.47 USD5.76 USD-0.41-11.4454.4MOn
5 Jun 202612.68 USD-12.6%11.34 USD5.69 USD-0.442.72106.0MOn
29 May 202614.50 USD54.1%11.23 USD5.61 USD-0.7012.49143.2MOn
22 May 20269.41 USD-0.8%11.12 USD5.53 USD-1.07-24.2143.9MOff
15 May 20269.49 USD-8.5%11.18 USD5.47 USD-0.99-22.6679.3MOff
8 May 202610.37 USD-7.7%11.25 USD5.42 USD-0.91-15.7544.2MOn
1 May 202611.23 USD-4.8%11.34 USD5.36 USD-0.72-3.4934.3MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.