- The trend backdrop is active with a 5-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
RCEL
NASDAQ
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Avita Medical Ltd · Healthcare · Medical Devices
Latest close
4.40 USD
-4.6%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is active. Price is 1.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 30.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.6%, after a -13.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is mixed with 37/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 53/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 4d.
Setup score
28
out of 100
Latest Close
4.40 USD
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
-4.6%
latest completed week
4W Return
-13.0%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
7.1%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
26.9%
14 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.4x
vs 13-week average
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 43.52% based on similar historical setup states.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-4.6%
Latest completed week; four-week move -13.0%.
Indicator stack
32/89
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Recent
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 43.52%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Mixed
37/100 conviction; expected move 20.5%.
News sentiment
53/100
71 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
4d
Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 1.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 30.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.6%, after a -13.0% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.4x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.2012-week average 0.20
12-week confirmation
Trend active10/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure8/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership1/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.20Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals1Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -13.0% over four weeks, 7.1% over 12 weeks, and -14.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 5 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak5 weeks
Active weeks in one year14
Trend breadth26.9%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.18Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change447.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-6.80Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-3665.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 76%
Model confidence 73%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength72/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 29; rank 1 is best.
Value60/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 41; rank 1 is best.
Quality59/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 42; rank 1 is best.
Momentum61/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 40; rank 1 is best.
Growth61/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 40; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 2.0x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- -15.3% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 81.4% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- -55.5% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- -38.3% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- -181.0% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 1.0% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 2/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -10.4% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- -10.4% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -1.1x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningMixed
RCEL shows mixed options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 20.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.
Conviction37/100
Expected move20.5%
Put/call volume
Insider activity14 / 0
14 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment53/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 71 relevant articles.
17 positive · 46 neutral · 8 negativePatient CapitalRecent
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings4dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move20.5%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-38.2%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility12.9%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher10 of 2616 weeks finished lower.
Best week+35.0%Week of 10 Apr.
Worst week-19.8%Week of 10 Jul.
Latest week-4.6%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains7
Modest gains3
Flat weeks0
Modest losses5
Sharp losses11
Recent vol12.9%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol11.9%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split18/33Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew12.7% / -6.3%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Healthcare
4-week rank- / 100
Group average-1.5%
Trend breadth52.0%
Trend52.0%active weekly trend signals
MD78.0%positive activity pressure
RS49.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Medical Devices
4-week rank80 / 100
Group average-2.3%
Trend breadth36.0%
Trend36.0%active weekly trend signals
MD67.0%positive activity pressure
RS29.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape30/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 30/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis48/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 10/12, activity pressure 8/12, relative leadership 1/12.
Activity pressure 0.20; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 43.52%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 43.52% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors62/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 87; Small Cap Core rank 48 Patient CapitalRecentActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks Options58/100RCEL shows mixed options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 20.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.
Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 20.5% Sentiment53/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 71 relevant articles.
AVITA Medical Inc (RCEL) Financial Health: Profitability & Balance Sheet Analysis Insiders14 / 014 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings4dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 4.40 USD | -4.6% | 4.35 USD | 8.65 USD | 0.18 | -6.80 | 538.5K | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 4.61 USD | -9.6% | 4.32 USD | 8.74 USD | 0.41 | -2.62 | 1.1M | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 5.10 USD | 25.6% | 4.28 USD | 8.85 USD | 0.39 | 4.99 | 2.0M | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 4.06 USD | -19.8% | 4.23 USD | 8.93 USD | 0.06 | -20.31 | 1.4M | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 5.06 USD | 27.5% | 4.21 USD | 9.04 USD | -0.05 | -0.18 | 1.7M | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 3.97 USD | -1.0% | 4.16 USD | 9.10 USD | -0.33 | -21.58 | 3.1M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 4.01 USD | 2.6% | 4.15 USD | 9.19 USD | -0.41 | -25.23 | 926.1K | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 3.91 USD | -6.5% | 4.14 USD | 9.27 USD | -0.23 | -26.01 | 1.0M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 4.18 USD | -3.5% | 4.13 USD | 9.35 USD | 0.08 | -20.15 | 1.4M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 4.33 USD | -5.5% | 4.12 USD | 9.43 USD | 0.10 | -22.15 | 851.8K | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 4.58 USD | 0.4% | 4.11 USD | 9.49 USD | 0.20 | -16.34 | 1.1M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 4.56 USD | 10.9% | 4.09 USD | 9.54 USD | 0.27 | -16.95 | 2.4M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 4.11 USD | -7.4% | 4.07 USD | 9.58 USD | 0.49 | -26.48 | 971.8K | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 4.44 USD | -0.4% | 4.10 USD | 9.63 USD | 0.85 | -17.93 | 724.2K | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.