Ticker Options Intelligence

RCEL options intelligence

Avita Medical Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 58 Market data through 21 Sep 2026 Checked 22 Sep 2026 13:25 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

RCEL currently carries volatility options pressure with a 58/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 14.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 14.7%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.14

Call-side skew

Trend fit 55

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +11.5%

RS 101.7

Expected move 14.7%
Put-call volume 0.14
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.63
Max pain 5.00
Underlying 11.02
Nearest expiry 16 Oct 2026
Contracts 64

Research Brief

RCEL has a volatility chain read with 58/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 9.39–12.65; The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50.

Priced range9.39–12.65
Call concentration15.00
Put concentration5.00
Max pain reference5.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 16 Oct

Options imply 9.39 to 12.65. Max pain at 5.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
9.3911.02 ± 1.6312.65
Confirmation level

A close beyond 12.65 or below 9.39 at the 16 Oct expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 58/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 81/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure81 × 42%
+34.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation4 × 22%
+0.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement55 × 26%
+14.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility84 × 10%
+8.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score57.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
25
2.50-77.3%
7
105
5.00-54.6%
125
50
7.50-31.9%
62
33
10.00-9.3%
47
0
12.5013.4%
162
0
15.0036.1%
819
1
17.5058.8%
1
0
20.0081.5%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 97% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$8,344Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak12.50+$4,215
Negative peak5.00-$102
Nearest balance5.45Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-77.3%
+$1
5.00-54.6%
-$102
7.50-31.9%
+$468
10.00-9.3%
+$570
12.5013.4%
+$4,215
15.0036.1%
+$3,217
17.5058.8%
+$9
20.0081.5%
-$34
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.81× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.63 16 Oct 25d
0.68 20 Nov 60d
0.69 15 Jan 116d
0.78 16 Apr 207d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

10
13
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

21 matured · 2 directional

Across 2 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 0% of the time.

Directional follow-through0%
Moves contained by pricing43%
Average expiry move40.9%
17 Sep Volatility · 58 11.5% through expiry 13.5% priced · v2.0
15 Sep Volatility · 62 11.5% through expiry 6.8% priced · v2.0
14 Sep Volatility · 60 11.5% through expiry 7.1% priced · v2.0
10 Sep Volatility · 61 -1.6% through expiry 6.5% priced · v2.0
4 Sep Volatility · 51 -1.6% through expiry 15.2% priced · v2.0
3 Sep Volatility · 60 6.5% through expiry 15.2% priced · v2.0
2 Sep Mixed · 33 6.5% through expiry 17.9% priced · v2.0
1 Sep Volatility · 60 6.5% through expiry 12.8% priced · v2.0
31 Aug Volatility · 62 6.5% through expiry 12.6% priced · v2.0
28 Aug Volatility · 70 6.5% through expiry 15.9% priced · v2.0
21 Aug Volatility · 61 9.5% through expiry 17.4% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Volatility · 53 28.2% through expiry 6.7% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
21 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
64 / 64
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3,010 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+81
1W price+11.5%
Call premium98%
Put premium2%
Notional split C 98% / P 2% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 55/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 9 contracts traded, $1,980 estimated gross traded notional, and 66% of visible notional.
$1,980
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $850 estimated gross traded notional, and 28% of visible notional.
$850
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $110 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$110
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $70 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$70

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Quiet tape

13

Activity is muted versus this ticker's stored history.

Baseline: 23 completed sessions

Volume rank17th
Volume/OI rank17th
IV rank4th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close11.02
1W+11.5%
RS101.7
Fair value+31.7%
Options pressure81
Speculation4
Volatility84
Trend fit55

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 14.7% near normal
30d avg 12.3% · 10 sessions 60th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
IV 0.63 muted
30d avg 1.13 · 10 sessions 10th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.14 near normal
30d avg 0.24 · 10 sessions 60th
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 muted
30d avg 0.08 · 10 sessions 20th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:44 Volatility
Pressure -92
Move 23.9%
30 Jul 11:22 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 30.4%
30 Jul 15:25 Volatility
Pressure 80
Move 24.4%
31 Jul 12:27 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 20.1%
2 Aug 05:30 Volatility
Pressure 80
Move 20.5%
2 Aug 10:35 Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 20.5%
4 Aug 10:23 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 26.7%
5 Aug 10:55 Mixed
Pressure -7
Move 25.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 25
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 125
Puts · V 0 · OI 105
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 62
Puts · V 0 · OI 50
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 47
Puts · V 2 · OI 33
Strike12.50
Calls · V 4 · OI 162
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 819
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.63
Put-call0.40
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.68
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts16
Avg IV0.69
Put-call-
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Contracts16
Avg IV0.78
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.71
Put IV0.19
Skew-0.52
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.78
Put IV0.82
Skew0.05
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.98
Put IV0.79
Skew-0.20
16 Apr 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.69
Put IV0.93
Skew0.24

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractRCEL270115C00010000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume9
OI18
IV0.73
ContractRCEL261016C00012500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike12.50
Volume4
OI162
IV0.71
ContractRCEL261016P00010000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume2
OI33
IV0.19
ContractRCEL261016C00002500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike2.50
Volume1
OI7
IV3.85
ContractRCEL261016C00015000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI819
IV0.57
ContractRCEL270115P00005000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI400
IV0.61
ContractRCEL261016C00005000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI125
IV1.93
ContractRCEL261016P00005000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI105
IV1.31

Evidence context