OCUL NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Ocular Therapeutix Inc · Healthcare · Biotechnology

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Latest close 8.17 USD
-3.9% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -11.0% below the Trend Line and sits at 19.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -3.9%, after a -15.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is volatility with 53/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 54/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 2d.

Setup score 23 out of 100
Latest Close 8.17 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -3.9% latest completed week
4W Return -15.2% short-term follow-through
12W Return -15.3% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 44.2% 23 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -3.9% Latest completed week; four-week move -15.2%. Indicator stack 24/44 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Volatility 53/100 conviction; expected move 9.8%. News sentiment 54/100 63 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 2d Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -11.0% below the Trend Line and sits at 19.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -3.9%, after a -15.2% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.1712-week average 0.18

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure11/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.17Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -15.2% over four weeks, -15.3% over 12 weeks, and -31.5% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-3.9%
4W-15.2%
12W-15.3%
26W-10.6%
52W-31.5%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year23
Trend breadth44.2%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.08Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-87.1%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-29.20Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-31.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 79% Model confidence 76%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength4/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 97; rank 1 is best.
Value20/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 81; rank 1 is best.
Quality16/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 85; rank 1 is best.
Momentum13/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 88; rank 1 is best.
Growth16/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 85; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
35.8x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
-16.6%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
87.2%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-535.9%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
-406.4%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-12.8%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
4/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-29.1%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
-29.1%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
2.1x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

OCUL shows volatility options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.01, expected move of 9.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction53/100
Expected move9.8%
Put/call volume0.01
Pressure100
Speculation10
Volatility89
Trend agreement0
Open options detail
Insider activity16 / 4

16 acquisitions and 4 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment54/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 63 relevant articles.

16 positive · 43 neutral · 4 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings2dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move9.8%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-50.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.0%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+14.9%Week of 27 Feb.
Worst week-14.7%Week of 13 Mar.
Latest week-3.9%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains9
Modest gains3
Flat weeks0
Modest losses5
Sharp losses9
Recent vol7.0%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol7.7%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split24/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew6.3% / -6.4%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape27/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 27/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis31/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 11/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.17; No reversal markers Factors12/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 93; Small Cap Core rank 87 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options36/100

OCUL shows volatility options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.01, expected move of 9.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 9.8% Sentiment54/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 63 relevant articles.

What Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL)'s Flat Quarter and AXPAXLI Trial Progress Means For Shareholders Insiders16 / 4

16 acquisitions and 4 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings2d

Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 20268.17 USD-3.9%9.18 USD8.21 USD0.08-29.2010.5MOff
24 Jul 20268.51 USD-5.2%9.30 USD8.19 USD0.37-26.718.9MOff
17 Jul 20268.97 USD-12.1%9.44 USD8.16 USD0.75-24.728.8MOff
10 Jul 202610.20 USD5.8%9.56 USD8.13 USD0.92-18.6312.8MOff
3 Jul 20269.64 USD-2.0%9.70 USD8.10 USD0.61-22.228.5MOff
26 Jun 20269.84 USD4.3%9.80 USD8.07 USD0.39-20.2621.0MOff
19 Jun 20269.43 USD5.5%9.88 USD8.04 USD0.16-27.2618.3MOff
12 Jun 20268.94 USD8.4%9.97 USD8.01 USD-0.02-29.4112.1MOff
5 Jun 20268.25 USD-8.4%10.05 USD7.98 USD0.08-33.6610.3MOff
29 May 20269.01 USD9.5%10.14 USD7.98 USD0.25-31.2210.4MOff
22 May 20268.23 USD-10.2%10.23 USD7.96 USD0.26-35.5815.0MOff
15 May 20269.16 USD-5.1%10.34 USD7.95 USD0.27-27.6615.2MOff
8 May 20269.65 USD2.3%10.42 USD7.93 USD0.19-24.1215.0MOff
1 May 20269.43 USD-0.6%10.50 USD7.91 USD-0.14-21.8512.1MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.