Ticker Options Intelligence

OCUL options intelligence

Ocular Therapeutix Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 51 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 19:16 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

OCUL currently carries volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 15.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.09.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 15.3%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.09

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.11

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -3.9%

RS -29.2

Expected move 15.3%
Put-call volume 0.11
Volume / OI 0.09
Reference IV 2.19
Max pain 2.00
Underlying 8.17
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 173

Research Brief

OCUL has a volatility chain read with 51/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 6.92–9.42; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.00; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 8.00.

Priced range6.92–9.42
Call concentration12.00
Put concentration7.50
Max pain reference2.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 6.92 to 9.42. Max pain at 2.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
6.928.17 ± 1.259.42
Confirmation level

A close beyond 9.42 or below 6.92 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 51/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 90/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure90 × 42%
+37.6

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation18 × 22%
+4.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score51.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.00; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 8.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.00-75.5%
79
0
3.00-63.3%
11
1
4.50-44.9%
0
1
5.00-38.8%
0
1
5.50-32.7%
0
2
7.00-14.3%
0
12
7.50-8.2%
0
4
8.00-2.1%
0
0
8.504.0%
7
10
9.0010.2%
22
2
9.5016.3%
3
1
10.0022.4%
77
0
10.5028.5%
35
0
11.5040.8%
1
0
12.0046.9%
114
0
13.0059.1%
1
1
17.00108.1%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.69× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

2.19 7 Aug 7d
2.54 14 Aug 14d
1.30 21 Aug 21d
1.22 18 Sep 49d
1.05 16 Oct 77d
1.16 18 Dec 140d
0.93 15 Jan 168d
1.18 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

7
8
8
9
9
10
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A99/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
173 / 173
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

92/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $418734 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · atm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+90
1W price-3.9%
Call premium76%
Put premium24%
Notional split C 76% / P 24% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.09 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM calls cluster with 2052 contracts traded, $174420 estimated gross traded notional, and 42% of visible notional.
$174420
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 47 contracts traded, $43102 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$43102
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 104 contracts traded, $41662 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$41662
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 359 contracts traded, $38981 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$38981
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM calls cluster with 43 contracts traded, $27735 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$27735

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close8.17
1W-3.9%
RS-29.2
Fair value-0.5%
Options pressure90
Speculation18
Volatility96
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 15.3% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 2.19 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.11 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.09 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:02 Bullish
Pressure 59
Move 1.6%
30 Jul 10:50 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 1.5%
31 Jul 09:22 Bullish
Pressure 42
Move 4.2%
2 Aug 12:03 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 9.8%
2 Aug 18:16 Volatility
Pressure 90
Move 15.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.00
Calls · V 43 · OI 79
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 11
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike5.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike6.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts29
Avg IV2.19
Put-call0.01
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts11
Avg IV2.54
Put-call0.50
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts21
Avg IV1.30
Put-call0.48
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts29
Avg IV1.22
Put-call0.27
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV1.05
Put-call27.00

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.83
Put IV0.61
Skew-1.22
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV2.90
Put IV1.12
Skew-1.78
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.46
Put IV0.77
Skew-0.70
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.29
Put IV0.76
Skew-0.53
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.36
Put IV1.04
Skew-0.32

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractOCUL260821C00016000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike16.00
Volume-
OI117
IV3.56
ContractOCUL261016C00010000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI105
IV1.03
ContractOCUL261218C00011000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike11.00
Volume-
OI100
IV1.24
ContractOCUL270319C00012000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike12.00
Volume-
OI30
IV1.12
ContractOCUL261016P00007000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.00
Volume-
OI20
IV1.01
ContractOCUL260821P00011000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike11.00
Volume-
OI20
IV2.11
ContractOCUL260807C00003000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike3.00
Volume-
OI11
IV6.61
ContractOCUL270319C00008000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike8.00
Volume-
OI10
IV1.13