- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 62.08% based on similar historical setup states.
CEN
NZE
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Contact Energy Limited · Utilities · Utilities - Renewable
Latest close
9.10 NZD
-2.7%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -2.7% below the Trend Line and sits at 38.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.7%, after a -1.8% four-week move. The latest news-sentiment score is 49/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.
Setup score
43
out of 100
Latest Close
9.10 NZD
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
-2.7%
latest completed week
4W Return
-1.8%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-8.1%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
86.5%
45 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.7x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-2.7%
Latest completed week; four-week move -1.8%.
Indicator stack
48/0
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 62.08%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
49/100
31 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -2.7% below the Trend Line and sits at 38.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.7%, after a -1.8% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.4312-week average 0.58
12-week confirmation
Trend active8/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure7/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership6/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.43Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -1.8% over four weeks, -8.1% over 12 weeks, and 4.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year45
Trend breadth86.5%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.01Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-597.5%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-4.21Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-116.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
A published fundamentals and factor snapshot is not available for this company.
No published fundamental snapshot is available for this company.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment49/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 31 relevant articles.
6 positive · 19 neutral · 6 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-8.9%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+3.2%Week of 1 May.
Worst week-4.7%Week of 22 May.
Latest week-2.7%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains0
Modest gains14
Flat weeks0
Modest losses10
Sharp losses2
Recent vol2.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol1.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split28/23Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew1.3% / -1.4%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorNZ Utilities
4-week rank4 / 5
Group average-0.8%
Trend breadth80.0%
Trend80.0%active weekly trend signals
MD20.0%positive activity pressure
RS60.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryNZ Utilities - Renewable
4-week rank2 / 3
Group average-1.0%
Trend breadth66.7%
Trend66.7%active weekly trend signals
MD0.0%positive activity pressure
RS33.3%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape43/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 43/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis51/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 8/12, activity pressure 7/12, relative leadership 6/12.
Activity pressure 0.43; 2 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 62.08%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 62.08% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors50/100No published factor snapshot is available yet.
Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment49/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 31 relevant articles.
Contact Energy (ASX:CEN) Jumps Today, But Investors Are Still Watching the Utility’s Next Growth Phase Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 9.10 NZD | -2.7% | 9.36 NZD | 8.41 NZD | -1.01 | -4.21 | 7.5M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 9.35 NZD | 1.4% | 9.36 NZD | 8.40 NZD | -0.92 | -2.16 | 6.8M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 9.22 NZD | 0.2% | 9.35 NZD | 8.39 NZD | -0.88 | -2.97 | 6.2M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 9.20 NZD | -0.8% | 9.35 NZD | 8.37 NZD | -0.46 | -3.83 | 4.3M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 9.27 NZD | 0.3% | 9.35 NZD | 8.36 NZD | -0.14 | -1.95 | 5.6M | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 9.24 NZD | -4.6% | 9.35 NZD | 8.35 NZD | 0.13 | -1.37 | 1.4M | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 9.69 NZD | 1.5% | 9.36 NZD | 8.33 NZD | 0.44 | 3.42 | 5.6M | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 9.55 NZD | -0.5% | 9.35 NZD | 8.32 NZD | 0.42 | 2.80 | 1.4M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 9.60 NZD | 0.6% | 9.35 NZD | 8.30 NZD | 0.72 | 5.24 | 1.1M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 9.54 NZD | 2.0% | 9.34 NZD | 8.28 NZD | 1.05 | 3.99 | 21.3M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 9.35 NZD | -4.7% | 9.33 NZD | 8.26 NZD | 1.18 | 3.95 | 62.0M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 9.81 NZD | -0.9% | 9.32 NZD | 8.25 NZD | 0.99 | 9.34 | 7.2M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 9.90 NZD | 2.7% | 9.29 NZD | 8.23 NZD | 0.60 | 8.81 | 7.8M | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 9.64 NZD | 3.2% | 9.26 NZD | 8.21 NZD | 0.14 | 7.22 | 6.3M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.