AAON NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

AAON Inc · Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

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Latest close 89.06 USD
-13.3% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -15.3% below the Trend Line and sits at 30.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -13.3%, after a -17.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is volatility with 47/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 56/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 9d.

Setup score 28 out of 100
Latest Close 89.06 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -13.3% latest completed week
4W Return -17.2% short-term follow-through
12W Return -36.2% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 48.1% 25 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.2x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Next-week expectancy is positive at 58.41% based on similar historical setup states.
  • Activity pressure is constructive, supporting the smart-money activity read.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -13.3% Latest completed week; four-week move -17.2%. Indicator stack 26/27 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 58.41% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Volatility 47/100 conviction; expected move 21.7%. News sentiment 56/100 23 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 9d Next report is scheduled for 10 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -15.3% below the Trend Line and sits at 30.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -13.3%, after a -17.2% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.2x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.7312-week average 0.68

12-week confirmation

Trend active11/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure10/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership9/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.73Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers1010 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 10 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -17.2% over four weeks, -36.2% over 12 weeks, and 9.5% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-13.3%
4W-17.2%
12W-36.2%
26W-2.0%
52W9.5%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year25
Trend breadth48.1%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.54Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-172.0%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-16.22Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-728.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 96%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength9/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 92; rank 1 is best.
Value3/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 98; rank 1 is best.
Quality17/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 84; rank 1 is best.
Momentum77/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 24; rank 1 is best.
Growth33/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 68; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework10/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
71.2x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
5.2x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
35.5x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
2.6%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
26.2%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
10.4%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
14.4%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
9.7%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
28.3%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-25.6%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-20.9%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
2/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
0.4%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-0.2%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
1.8x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

AAON shows volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.34, expected move of 21.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction47/100
Expected move21.7%
Put/call volume1.34
Pressure-6
Speculation44
Volatility96
Trend agreement96
Open options detail
Insider activity5 / 15

5 acquisitions and 15 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment56/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 23 relevant articles.

9 positive · 10 neutral · 4 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings9dNext report is scheduled for 10 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move21.7%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-40.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility15.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher11 of 2615 weeks finished lower.
Best week+49.2%Week of 8 May.
Worst week-15.1%Week of 3 Jul.
Latest week-13.3%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains8
Modest gains3
Flat weeks0
Modest losses5
Sharp losses10
Recent vol15.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol9.5%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split24/28Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew7.3% / -5.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape32/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 32/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis68/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 11/12, activity pressure 10/12, relative leadership 9/12.

Activity pressure 0.73; 10 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 58.41%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 58.41% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors23/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 73; Small Cap Core rank 99 SVQF10/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 655.5 of 726 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options61/100

AAON shows volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.34, expected move of 21.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 21.7% Sentiment56/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 23 relevant articles.

AAON Increases Board Size and Appoints Robert L. Buttermore III, and Patrick J. Jermain as Independent Directors Insiders5 / 15

5 acquisitions and 15 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings9d

Next report is scheduled for 10 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 202689.06 USD-13.3%105.2 USD90.49 USD-0.54-16.227.0MOff
24 Jul 2026102.7 USD-7.9%104.8 USD90.33 USD-0.35-3.105.0MOn
17 Jul 2026111.4 USD-2.4%103.9 USD90.11 USD0.043.525.2MOn
10 Jul 2026114.2 USD6.1%102.7 USD89.82 USD0.431.914.7MOn
3 Jul 2026107.6 USD-15.1%101.5 USD89.51 USD0.75-1.964.1MOn
26 Jun 2026126.8 USD-7.3%100.8 USD89.22 USD1.1016.724.6MOn
19 Jun 2026136.7 USD7.5%99.71 USD88.80 USD1.2620.893.7MOn
12 Jun 2026127.2 USD-4.1%98.19 USD88.33 USD1.3616.174.8MOn
5 Jun 2026132.6 USD-5.3%97.08 USD87.92 USD1.5524.535.8MOn
29 May 2026140.1 USD4.2%96.16 USD87.47 USD1.7525.714.2MOn
22 May 2026134.5 USD-0.7%94.76 USD86.96 USD1.3724.264.9MOn
15 May 2026135.4 USD-3.0%93.81 USD86.48 USD1.0426.496.8MOn
8 May 2026139.6 USD49.2%92.53 USD85.99 USD0.7229.7413.6MOn
1 May 202693.52 USD-6.0%91.18 USD85.50 USD0.21-8.384.1MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.