Signal Validation

Market Dynamics Performance Index

A concept-validation index for US equities, testing whether first Market Dynamics Buy signals identify productive weekly setups. Entries and exits are research pointers for a shortlist, not a follow-along strategy.

United States
Latest week 10 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
483.76
Total Return
383.76%
CAGR
56.75% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+34.30%/yr Beats SPY on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 2.67 Sortino 5.20
Current Holdings
1117
Transactions
10719 Avg 3056.2/yr · 254.7/mo · 58.8/wk
Exit Mix
4801 Stop 41.3% · Warning 58.4% · Other 0.2%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted signal-validation model for US equities. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, Market Dynamics buy signals, and Smart Money warning data to test the Market Dynamics concept over time.

01

Universe

Active US equities only. ETFs, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and listings outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

A stock enters at that week’s stored weekly close on the first Market Dynamics Buy signal while the stock is not already held. New entries are blocked if that same week has a Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • This index is designed to validate the Market Dynamics signal concept, not to serve as a mechanical follow-along strategy.
  • Only the first actionable Market Dynamics Buy signal opens a position while the stock is flat.
  • Weekly entries and exits may help identify stocks for a research shortlist, but they are not portfolio instructions.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Reversal Danger blocks new entries, but the Market Dynamics index exits only on Reversal Risk or the 20% entry drawdown rule.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

10 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
28
AKTX NASDAQ · Akari Therapeutics PLC
13.88 MD 1.03 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALG NYSE · Alamo Group Inc
161.48 MD 0.27 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALXO NASDAQ · Alx Oncology Holdings
2.13 MD 0.03 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
AOS NYSE · Smith AO Corporation
60.44 MD 0.00 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ARAI NASDAQ · Arrive AI Inc.
0.42 MD 0.40 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ATR NYSE · AptarGroup Inc
125.53 MD 0.18 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BFAM NYSE · Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc
73.31 MD 0.11 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BUR NYSE · Burford Capital Ltd
4.19 MD 0.14 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GIB NYSE · CGI Inc
67.06 MD 0.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GLXG NASDAQ · Galaxy Payroll Group Limited Ordinary Shares
1.46 MD 0.15 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
HAVA NASDAQ · Harvard Ave Acquisition Corporation Class A Ordinary Share
10.12 MD 1.35 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
JLHL NASDAQ · Julong Holding Limited Class A Ordinary Shares
11.73 MD 0.44 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
LAFA NASDAQ · LaFayette Acquisition Corp. Ordinary Share
10.11 MD 1.51 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MKC-V NYSE · McCormick & Company Incorporated
50.81 MD 0.15 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MMTX NASDAQ · Miluna Acquisition Corp Class A Ordinary Share
10.15 MD 2.50 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MNDO NASDAQ · MIND CTI Ltd
1.06 MD 0.16 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
PEW NYSE · GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.
2.96 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
RPD NASDAQ · Rapid7 Inc
11.17 MD 1.18 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SAFX NASDAQ · XCF Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock
0.55 MD 0.24 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SKIN NASDAQ · Beauty Health Co
0.91 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SKYX NASDAQ · SKYX Platforms Corp
1.27 MD 0.09 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
STIM NASDAQ · Neuronetics Inc
1.76 MD 0.50 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
TTEK NASDAQ · Tetra Tech Inc
30.99 MD 0.06 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
USPH NYSE · U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.
72.54 MD 0.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
VRDN NASDAQ · Viridian Therapeutics Inc
19.74 MD 0.12 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WRAP NASDAQ · Wrap Technologies Inc
2.46 MD 0.26 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WVVI NASDAQ · Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc
2.93 MD 1.08 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
XTLB NASDAQ · XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd ADR
2.91 MD 0.77 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
16
APWC NASDAQ · Asia Pacific Wire & Cable Corp Ltd
1.53 20% entry drawdown · -23.12%
BIRD NASDAQ · Allbirds Inc
3.13 20% entry drawdown · -33.15%
BLLN NASDAQ · BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Common Stock
126.77 Reversal Risk Warning · 28.06%
BYRN NASDAQ · Byrna Technologies Inc
3.87 20% entry drawdown · -44.55%
CE NYSE · Celanese Corporation
46.92 20% entry drawdown · -20.19%
CHGG NYSE · Chegg Inc
0.85 20% entry drawdown · -23.79%
CWH NYSE · Camping World Holdings Inc
6.22 20% entry drawdown · -22.06%
GAME NASDAQ · GameSquare Holdings Inc.
0.31 20% entry drawdown · -31.37%
GKOS NYSE · Glaukos Corp
152.72 Reversal Risk Warning · 82.11%
JEM NASDAQ · 707 Cayman Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares
0.54 20% entry drawdown · -64.86%
KELYB NASDAQ · Kelly Services B Inc
23.95 Reversal Risk Warning · 75.74%
LVO NASDAQ · LiveOne Inc
5.23 20% entry drawdown · -24.64%
NEWT NASDAQ · NewtekOne, Inc.
14.78 Reversal Risk Warning · 52.99%
OMEX NASDAQ · Odyssey Marine Exploration Inc
0.71 20% entry drawdown · -22.37%
TLPH NASDAQ · Talphera Inc.
1.46 Reversal Risk Warning · 196.33%
WATT NASDAQ · Energous Corporation
17.99 20% entry drawdown · -27.25%

Live Book

Current Holdings

Showing 1111-1117 of 1117 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signal MD ROC RS
ZH NYSE · Zhihu Inc ADR
16 Aug 20243.08
3.26
5.84%
Buy
0.02
-
-
ZIP NYSE · Ziprecruiter Inc
1 May 20263.09
3.87
25.24%
Buy
0.31
-
-
ZLAB NASDAQ · Zai Lab Ltd
20 Feb 202620.04
20.49
2.25%
Buy
0.10
-
-
ZS NASDAQ · Zscaler Inc
3 Jul 2026147.33
139.27
-5.47%
Buy
0.40
-
-
ZSQR NASDAQ · Z Squared Inc.
17 Jan 20259.27
8.56
-7.66%
Buy
2.15
-
-
ZTEK NASDAQ · ZEN Graphene Solutions Ltd
26 Jun 20260.49
0.48
-2.70%
Buy
0.04
-
-
ZVIA NYSE · Zevia Pbc
15 May 20261.33
1.72
29.32%
Buy
0.17
-
-

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 1-30 of 10719
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
10 Jul 2026
Entry
AKTX NASDAQ · Akari Therapeutics PLC
13.88
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.03
10 Jul 2026
Entry
ALG NYSE · Alamo Group Inc
161.48
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.27
10 Jul 2026
Entry
ALXO NASDAQ · Alx Oncology Holdings
2.13
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.03
10 Jul 2026
Entry
AOS NYSE · Smith AO Corporation
60.44
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.00
10 Jul 2026
Exit
APWC NASDAQ · Asia Pacific Wire & Cable Corp Ltd
1.53
20% entry drawdown
-23.12%
Entry 19 Jun 2026 1.99
10 Jul 2026
Entry
ARAI NASDAQ · Arrive AI Inc.
0.42
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.40
10 Jul 2026
Entry
ATR NYSE · AptarGroup Inc
125.53
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.18
10 Jul 2026
Entry
BFAM NYSE · Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc
73.31
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.11
10 Jul 2026
Exit
BIRD NASDAQ · Allbirds Inc
3.13
20% entry drawdown
-33.15%
Entry 19 Jun 2026 4.68
10 Jul 2026
Exit
BLLN NASDAQ · BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Common Stock
126.77
Reversal Risk Warning
28.06%
Entry 29 May 2026 98.99
10 Jul 2026
Entry
BUR NYSE · Burford Capital Ltd
4.19
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.14
10 Jul 2026
Exit
BYRN NASDAQ · Byrna Technologies Inc
3.87
20% entry drawdown
-44.55%
Entry 3 Jul 2026 6.97
10 Jul 2026
Exit
CE NYSE · Celanese Corporation
46.92
20% entry drawdown
-20.19%
Entry 13 Feb 2026 58.79
10 Jul 2026
Exit
CHGG NYSE · Chegg Inc
0.85
20% entry drawdown
-23.79%
Entry 1 May 2026 1.12
10 Jul 2026
Exit
CWH NYSE · Camping World Holdings Inc
6.22
20% entry drawdown
-22.06%
Entry 12 Jun 2026 7.98
10 Jul 2026
Exit
GAME NASDAQ · GameSquare Holdings Inc.
0.31
20% entry drawdown
-31.37%
Entry 22 May 2026 0.46
10 Jul 2026
Entry
GIB NYSE · CGI Inc
67.06
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.07
10 Jul 2026
Exit
GKOS NYSE · Glaukos Corp
152.72
Reversal Risk Warning
82.11%
Entry 7 Nov 2025 83.86
10 Jul 2026
Entry
GLXG NASDAQ · Galaxy Payroll Group Limited Ordinary Shares
1.46
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.15
10 Jul 2026
Entry
HAVA NASDAQ · Harvard Ave Acquisition Corporation Class A Ordinary Share
10.12
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.35
10 Jul 2026
Exit
JEM NASDAQ · 707 Cayman Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares
0.54
20% entry drawdown
-64.86%
Entry 15 May 2026 1.54
10 Jul 2026
Entry
JLHL NASDAQ · Julong Holding Limited Class A Ordinary Shares
11.73
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.44
10 Jul 2026
Exit
KELYB NASDAQ · Kelly Services B Inc
23.95
Reversal Risk Warning
75.74%
Entry 30 Jan 2026 13.63
10 Jul 2026
Entry
LAFA NASDAQ · LaFayette Acquisition Corp. Ordinary Share
10.11
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.51
10 Jul 2026
Exit
LVO NASDAQ · LiveOne Inc
5.23
20% entry drawdown
-24.64%
Entry 22 May 2026 6.94
10 Jul 2026
Entry
MKC-V NYSE · McCormick & Company Incorporated
50.81
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.15
10 Jul 2026
Entry
MMTX NASDAQ · Miluna Acquisition Corp Class A Ordinary Share
10.15
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 2.50
10 Jul 2026
Entry
MNDO NASDAQ · MIND CTI Ltd
1.06
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.16
10 Jul 2026
Exit
NEWT NASDAQ · NewtekOne, Inc.
14.78
Reversal Risk Warning
52.99%
Entry 26 Apr 2024 9.66
10 Jul 2026
Exit
OMEX NASDAQ · Odyssey Marine Exploration Inc
0.71
20% entry drawdown
-22.37%
Entry 6 Jun 2025 0.91