Signal Validation

Market Dynamics Performance Index

A concept-validation index for US equities, testing whether first Market Dynamics Buy signals identify productive weekly setups. Entries and exits are research pointers for a shortlist, not a follow-along strategy.

United States
Latest week 3 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
487.74
Total Return
387.74%
CAGR
57.51% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+35.40%/yr Beats SPY on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 2.70 Sortino 5.25
Current Holdings
1105
Transactions
10675 Avg 3060.4/yr · 255.0/mo · 58.9/wk
Exit Mix
4785 Stop 41.3% · Warning 58.5% · Other 0.2%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted signal-validation model for US equities. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, Market Dynamics buy signals, and Smart Money warning data to test the Market Dynamics concept over time.

01

Universe

Active US equities only. ETFs, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and listings outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

A stock enters at that week’s stored weekly close on the first Market Dynamics Buy signal while the stock is not already held. New entries are blocked if that same week has a Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • This index is designed to validate the Market Dynamics signal concept, not to serve as a mechanical follow-along strategy.
  • Only the first actionable Market Dynamics Buy signal opens a position while the stock is flat.
  • Weekly entries and exits may help identify stocks for a research shortlist, but they are not portfolio instructions.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Reversal Danger blocks new entries, but the Market Dynamics index exits only on Reversal Risk or the 20% entry drawdown rule.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

3 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
47
ABT NYSE · Abbott Laboratories
95.40 MD 0.06 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ACET NASDAQ · Adicet Bio Inc
9.00 MD 0.90 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
AKBA NASDAQ · Akebia Ther
1.24 MD 0.04 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALDX NASDAQ · Aldeyra The
2.27 MD 0.20 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ALIT NYSE · Alight Inc
14.26 MD 0.88 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ANGI NASDAQ · ANGI Homeservices Inc
6.06 MD 0.09 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
AVXL NASDAQ · Anavex Life Sciences Corp
2.76 MD 0.10 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BARK NYSE · BARK, Inc.
10.93 MD 0.02 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BILL NYSE · Bill Com Holdings Inc
40.48 MD 0.02 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BTMD NASDAQ · biote Corp
2.17 MD 0.93 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
BYRN NASDAQ · Byrna Technologies Inc
6.97 MD 0.51 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
CIGI NASDAQ · Colliers International Group Inc Bats
98.51 MD 0.06 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
CLRO NASDAQ · ClearOne Inc
6.48 MD 0.63 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
CRAC NASDAQ · Crown Reserve Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares
10.12 MD 1.89 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
DEFT NASDAQ · DeFi Technologies Inc.
0.53 MD 0.47 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
DNMX NASDAQ · Dynamix Corporation III Class A Ordinary Shares
10.01 MD 1.48 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
DYAI NASDAQ · Dyadic International Inc
0.94 MD 0.21 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ELBM NASDAQ · Electra Battery Materials Corp
0.56 MD 0.28 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ESBA NYSE · Empire State Realty OP LP ES
5.64 MD 0.68 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
EVO NASDAQ · Evotec SE ADR
2.90 MD 0.20 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
EVTC NYSE · Evertec Inc
29.63 MD 0.27 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
FISK NYSE · Empire State Realty OP LP 250
5.61 MD 0.63 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
FOUR NYSE · Shift4 Payments Inc
51.35 MD 0.87 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GHI NYSE · Greystone Housing Impact Investors LP
5.96 MD 0.27 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
GIS NYSE · General Mills Inc
37.57 MD 0.41 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
HELP NASDAQ · Cybin Inc. Common Stock
6.24 MD 0.51 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
INCR NASDAQ · InterCure Ltd.
1.09 MD 1.06 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
KNSL NYSE · Kinsale Capital Group Inc
354.85 MD 0.09 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
LAB NASDAQ · Standard Biotools Inc
0.91 MD 0.26 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
LZ NASDAQ · LegalZoom.com Inc
6.92 MD 0.38 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MRSH NYSE · Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.
178.54 MD 0.32 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
MSTR NASDAQ · MicroStrategy Incorporated
100.77 MD 0.01 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
NKE NYSE · Nike Inc
44.09 MD 0.29 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
OI NYSE · O-I Glass Inc
9.79 MD 0.11 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
OWLT NYSE · Owlet Inc
5.76 MD 0.26 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
OXBR NASDAQ · Oxbridge Re Holdings Ltd
1.28 MD 1.07 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
PGY NASDAQ · Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
17.79 MD 1.04 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
REAX NASDAQ · Real Brokerage Inc
2.17 MD 0.08 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SLNG NASDAQ · Stabilis Solutions Inc
4.19 MD 0.43 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
SRFM NYSE · Surf Air Mobility Inc.
1.04 MD 0.50 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
TDWD NASDAQ · Tailwind 2.0 Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Shares
10.06 MD 1.64 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
UTZ NYSE · Utz Brands Inc
8.27 MD 0.58 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WAY NASDAQ · Waystar Holding Corp. Common Stock
23.46 MD 0.10 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
WING NASDAQ · Wingstop Inc
177.99 MD 0.22 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
YSG NYSE · Yatsen Holding
3.47 MD 1.35 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ZBH NYSE · Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc
87.47 MD 0.13 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal
ZS NASDAQ · Zscaler Inc
147.33 MD 0.40 · Market Dynamics Buy Signal

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
22
ABCL NASDAQ · Abcellera Biologics Inc
8.11 Reversal Risk Warning · 137.83%
ABX NYSE · Abacus Global Management, Inc.
11.86 Reversal Risk Warning · 89.60%
AIRT NASDAQ · Air T Inc
28.87 Reversal Risk Warning · 60.30%
ALAR NASDAQ · Alarum Technologies Ltd.
6.35 20% entry drawdown · -34.06%
ALGT NASDAQ · Allegiant Travel Company
118.67 Reversal Risk Warning · 113.01%
ASTL NASDAQ · Algoma Steel Group Inc
3.77 20% entry drawdown · -20.46%
BGDE NASDAQ · Big Digital Energy, Inc.
7.45 20% entry drawdown · -30.18%
ENVX NASDAQ · Enovix Corp
5.36 20% entry drawdown · -20.83%
FA NASDAQ · First Advantage Corp
20.53 Reversal Risk Warning · 58.29%
GCBC NASDAQ · Greene County Bancorp Inc
34.66 Reversal Risk Warning · 41.97%
ILMN NASDAQ · Illumina Inc
188.68 Reversal Risk Warning · 117.05%
LFVN NASDAQ · Lifevantage Corporation
6.22 20% entry drawdown · -20.55%
MB NASDAQ · MasterBeef Group Ordinary Shares
4.51 20% entry drawdown · -26.31%
MOVE NASDAQ · Movano Inc
17.37 20% entry drawdown · -24.12%
NEUP NASDAQ · Neuphoria Therapeutics Inc
3.38 20% entry drawdown · -32.94%
OPTU NYSE · Optimum Communications, Inc.
1.16 20% entry drawdown · -30.12%
RDZN NASDAQ · Roadzen Inc.
1.34 20% entry drawdown · -25.56%
SMCI NASDAQ · Super Micro Computer Inc
27.22 20% entry drawdown · -23.04%
TTRX NASDAQ · Turn Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock
7.12 Reversal Risk Warning · 38.79%
USIO NASDAQ · Usio Inc
2.48 Reversal Risk Warning · 63.16%
VGAS NASDAQ · Verde Clean Fuels Inc.
1.00 20% entry drawdown · -34.21%
WXM NASDAQ · WF International Limited Ordinary Shares
4.29 20% entry drawdown · -23.38%

Live Book

Current Holdings

Showing 181-210 of 1105 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signal MD ROC RS
CDW NASDAQ · CDW Corp
22 May 2026110.82
133.37
20.35%
Buy
0.13
-
-
CDXS NASDAQ · Codexis Inc
13 Mar 20261.61
2.47
53.42%
Buy
0.08
-
-
CE NYSE · Celanese Corporation
13 Feb 202658.79
47.68
-18.90%
Buy
1.51
-
-
CELH NASDAQ · Celsius Holdings Inc
21 Mar 202532.93
33.16
0.70%
Buy
1.29
-
-
CERT NASDAQ · Certara Inc
19 Jun 20265.54
6.97
25.81%
Buy
0.37
-
-
CGBD NASDAQ · Carlyle Secured Lending Inc
1 May 202611.58
10.89
-5.92%
Buy
0.15
-
-
CGEM NASDAQ · Cullinan Oncology LLC
31 Oct 20258.66
17.63
103.58%
Buy
1.01
-
-
CHA NASDAQ · Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
13 Mar 202611.16
11.01
-1.34%
Buy
0.35
-
-
CHAR NASDAQ · Charlton Aria Acquisition Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares
7 Nov 202510.39
10.80
3.95%
Buy
0.06
-
-
CHCT NYSE · Community Healthcare Trust Inc
14 Nov 202513.98
18.31
30.96%
Buy
0.26
-
-
CHDN NASDAQ · Churchill Downs Incorporated
1 May 202698.65
90.91
-7.85%
Buy
0.04
-
-
CHEC NASDAQ · Chenghe Acquisition III Co. Class A Ordinary Share
5 Jun 202610.15
10.18
0.30%
Buy
1.08
-
-
CHGG NYSE · Chegg Inc
1 May 20261.12
1.01
-9.82%
Buy
1.25
-
-
CHH NYSE · Choice Hotels International Inc
2 Jan 202695.83
112.37
17.26%
Buy
0.06
-
-
CHKP NASDAQ · Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
26 Jun 2026130.05
136.58
5.02%
Buy
0.05
-
-
CHRD NASDAQ · Chord Energy Corp
20 Jun 202599.38
113.32
14.03%
Buy
0.44
-
-
CHRN NASDAQ · ChronoScale Corporation
5 Sep 20254.04
16.49
308.17%
Buy
0.75
-
-
CHRS NASDAQ · Coherus BioSciences Inc
18 Jul 20250.88
1.45
64.62%
Buy
0.18
-
-
CI NYSE · Cigna Corp
7 Nov 2025260.20
287.77
10.59%
Buy
0.02
-
-
CIGI NASDAQ · Colliers International Group Inc Bats
3 Jul 202698.51
98.51
New Entry week
Buy
0.06
-
-
CLAR NASDAQ · Clarus Corp
19 Jun 20263.13
3.16
0.96%
Buy
0.66
-
-
CLB NYSE · Core Laboratories NV
5 Sep 202512.60
11.46
-9.02%
Buy
0.52
-
-
CLDX NASDAQ · Celldex Therapeutics Inc
16 May 202520.45
38.37
87.63%
Buy
0.37
-
-
CLF NYSE · Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
4 Jul 20258.82
9.86
11.79%
Buy
0.38
-
-
CLNN NASDAQ · Clene Inc.
13 Jun 20254.10
6.10
48.78%
Buy
0.17
-
-
CLPR NYSE · Clipper Realty Inc
1 May 20263.24
2.87
-11.40%
Buy
0.05
-
-
CLRO NASDAQ · ClearOne Inc
3 Jul 20266.48
6.48
New Entry week
Buy
0.63
-
-
CLW NYSE · Clearwater Paper Corporation
29 May 202616.30
15.92
-2.33%
Buy
0.10
-
-
CMCSA NASDAQ · Comcast Corp
2 Jan 202625.57
23.79
-6.97%
Buy
0.04
-
-
CMG NYSE · Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
26 Jun 202633.34
35.39
6.15%
Buy
0.32
-
-

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 1-30 of 10675
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
3 Jul 2026
Exit
ABCL NASDAQ · Abcellera Biologics Inc
8.11
Reversal Risk Warning
137.83%
Entry 20 Jun 2025 3.41
3 Jul 2026
Entry
ABT NYSE · Abbott Laboratories
95.40
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.06
3 Jul 2026
Exit
ABX NYSE · Abacus Global Management, Inc.
11.86
Reversal Risk Warning
89.60%
Entry 7 Nov 2025 6.26
3 Jul 2026
Entry
ACET NASDAQ · Adicet Bio Inc
9.00
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.90
3 Jul 2026
Exit
AIRT NASDAQ · Air T Inc
28.87
Reversal Risk Warning
60.30%
Entry 30 May 2025 18.01
3 Jul 2026
Entry
AKBA NASDAQ · Akebia Ther
1.24
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.04
3 Jul 2026
Exit
ALAR NASDAQ · Alarum Technologies Ltd.
6.35
20% entry drawdown
-34.06%
Entry 12 Jun 2026 9.63
3 Jul 2026
Entry
ALDX NASDAQ · Aldeyra The
2.27
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.20
3 Jul 2026
Exit
ALGT NASDAQ · Allegiant Travel Company
118.67
Reversal Risk Warning
113.01%
Entry 27 Jun 2025 55.71
3 Jul 2026
Entry
ALIT NYSE · Alight Inc
14.26
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.88
3 Jul 2026
Entry
ANGI NASDAQ · ANGI Homeservices Inc
6.06
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.09
3 Jul 2026
Exit
ASTL NASDAQ · Algoma Steel Group Inc
3.77
20% entry drawdown
-20.46%
Entry 17 Apr 2026 4.74
3 Jul 2026
Entry
AVXL NASDAQ · Anavex Life Sciences Corp
2.76
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.10
3 Jul 2026
Entry
BARK NYSE · BARK, Inc.
10.93
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.02
3 Jul 2026
Exit
BGDE NASDAQ · Big Digital Energy, Inc.
7.45
20% entry drawdown
-30.18%
Entry 19 Jun 2026 10.67
3 Jul 2026
Entry
BILL NYSE · Bill Com Holdings Inc
40.48
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.02
3 Jul 2026
Entry
BTMD NASDAQ · biote Corp
2.17
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.93
3 Jul 2026
Entry
BYRN NASDAQ · Byrna Technologies Inc
6.97
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.51
3 Jul 2026
Entry
CIGI NASDAQ · Colliers International Group Inc Bats
98.51
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.06
3 Jul 2026
Entry
CLRO NASDAQ · ClearOne Inc
6.48
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.63
3 Jul 2026
Entry
CRAC NASDAQ · Crown Reserve Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares
10.12
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.89
3 Jul 2026
Entry
DEFT NASDAQ · DeFi Technologies Inc.
0.53
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.47
3 Jul 2026
Entry
DNMX NASDAQ · Dynamix Corporation III Class A Ordinary Shares
10.01
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 1.48
3 Jul 2026
Entry
DYAI NASDAQ · Dyadic International Inc
0.94
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.21
3 Jul 2026
Entry
ELBM NASDAQ · Electra Battery Materials Corp
0.56
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.28
3 Jul 2026
Exit
ENVX NASDAQ · Enovix Corp
5.36
20% entry drawdown
-20.83%
Entry 1 May 2026 6.77
3 Jul 2026
Entry
ESBA NYSE · Empire State Realty OP LP ES
5.64
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.68
3 Jul 2026
Entry
EVO NASDAQ · Evotec SE ADR
2.90
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.20
3 Jul 2026
Entry
EVTC NYSE · Evertec Inc
29.63
Market Dynamics Buy Signal
-
Market Dynamics Buy MD 0.27
3 Jul 2026
Exit
FA NASDAQ · First Advantage Corp
20.53
Reversal Risk Warning
58.29%
Entry 1 May 2026 12.97