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Relevant probability moves from prediction markets.

Read Relevant event markets with active probability movement. China · 2 radar items · updated 24 Jul, 11:27

Probability Fade

Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?

Polymarket · Geopolitics

52.5% probability

Geopolitics expectation is falling at 52.5%. 24h move -2.5 pts. 7d move -35.0 pts. Data quality 40/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

24h -2.5 pts

7d -35.0 pts

Volume 10K

Quality 40/100

Insight Market

Watch

US x China tariff agreement by July 31?

Polymarket · Geopolitics

2.9% probability

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 2.9%. 24h move -0.8 pts. 7d move -3.1 pts. Data quality 53/100.

24h -0.8 pts

7d -3.1 pts

Volume 93K

Quality 53/100

Insight Market