Events

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Relevant probability moves from prediction markets.

Read Relevant event markets with active probability movement. Israel · 3 radar items · updated 24 Jul, 08:01

Probability Surge

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?

Polymarket · Energy

99.6% probability

Energy expectation is rising at 99.6%. 24h move +12.6 pts. 7d move +12.0 pts. Data quality 61/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

24h +12.6 pts

7d +12.0 pts

Volume 882K

Quality 61/100

Insight Market

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Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by July 31, 2026?

Polymarket · Energy

4.4% probability

Energy expectation is steady at 4.4%. 24h move +1.8 pts. 7d move +2.8 pts. Data quality 53/100.

24h +1.8 pts

7d +2.8 pts

Volume 100K

Quality 53/100

Insight Market

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Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Polymarket · Energy

0.8% probability

Energy expectation is steady at 0.8%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move -0.4 pts. Data quality 62/100.

24h +0.0 pts

7d -0.4 pts

Volume 938K

Quality 62/100

Insight Market