Polymarket · Energy

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by July 31, 2026?

Energy expectations are rising at 4.4% on a high-quality market. Energy expectation is steady at 4.4%. 24h move +1.8 pts. 7d move +2.8 pts. Data quality 53/100.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 4.5%
Signal Watch
Score 37
Freshness 2m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 100.0K Liquidity 16.6K Spread 0.0 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality53.2
Momentum12.4
Urgency51.4
7d Move2.8 pts

Energy expectation is steady at 4.4%. 24h move +1.8 pts. 7d move +2.8 pts. Data quality 53/100.

Same theme
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? 1.9% · Probability Fade · score 73 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? 35.6% · Probability Surge · score 69 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July? 15.5% · Probability Fade · score 62 US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31? 61.5% · Probability Surge · score 57 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22? 99.6% · Probability Surge · score 52 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? 0.9% · Probability Fade · score 49