Ticker Options Intelligence

EC options intelligence

Ecopetrol SA ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 48 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 02:58 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

EC currently carries volatility options pressure with a 48/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 12.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 12.8%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.58

Call-side skew

Trend fit 68

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -0.5%

RS 29.6

Expected move 12.8%
Put-call volume 0.58
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.52
Max pain 13.00
Underlying 16.01
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 188

Research Brief

EC has a volatility chain read with 48/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 13.96–18.06; The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 14.00. The most active strike by current volume is 17.00.

Priced range13.96–18.06
Call concentration15.00
Put concentration14.00
Max pain reference13.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 13.96 to 18.06. Max pain at 13.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
13.9616.01 ± 2.0518.06
Confirmation level

A close beyond 18.06 or below 13.96 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 48/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 36/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure36 × 42%
+15.2

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation33 × 22%
+7.3

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement68 × 26%
+17.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility77 × 10%
+7.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score47.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 14.00. The most active strike by current volume is 17.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
5
5.00-68.8%
2
8
6.00-62.5%
3
3
7.00-56.3%
2
237
8.00-50.0%
28
339
9.00-43.8%
21
493
10.00-37.5%
271
683
11.00-31.3%
226
498
12.00-25.0%
887
728
13.00-18.8%
6033
1489
14.00-12.6%
2045
1325
15.00-6.3%
17853
776
16.00-0.1%
4464
654
17.006.2%
3517
100
18.0012.4%
15954
148
19.0018.7%
1035
657
20.0024.9%
4625
0
22.0037.4%
801
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.07× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.52 21 Aug 21d
0.48 18 Sep 49d
0.49 20 Nov 112d
0.49 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
188 / 188
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

88/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $54486 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+36
1W price-0.5%
Call premium71%
Put premium29%
Notional split C 71% / P 29% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 68/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 365 contracts traded, $18130 estimated gross traded notional, and 33% of visible notional.
$18130
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM puts cluster with 134 contracts traded, $11725 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$11725
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 28 contracts traded, $5530 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$5530
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 11 contracts traded, $5065 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$5065
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 28 contracts traded, $4855 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$4855

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close16.01
1W-0.5%
RS29.6
Fair value+80.9%
Options pressure36
Speculation33
Volatility77
Trend fit68

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 12.8% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.52 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.58 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:13 Bullish
Pressure 62
Move 8.7%
30 Jul 10:10 Bullish
Pressure 84
Move 9.7%
31 Jul 13:14 Volatility
Pressure 64
Move 11.1%
1 Aug 01:58 Volatility
Pressure 36
Move 12.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 28
Puts · V 0 · OI 237

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.52
Put-call0.76
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.48
Put-call0.10
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.49
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts38
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.07

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.54
Skew0.05
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.50
Skew0.06
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.50
Skew0.03
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.50
Skew-0.01

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractEC260821C00017000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.00
Volume206
OI3517
IV0.44
ContractEC260821C00018000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike18.00
Volume146
OI15954
IV0.49
ContractEC260821P00016000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike16.00
Volume134
OI776
IV0.80
ContractEC260918C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume78
OI19
IV0.48
ContractEC260821P00015000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume74
OI1325
IV0.54
ContractEC260821P00014000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike14.00
Volume57
OI1489
IV0.62
ContractEC260821P00013000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike13.00
Volume30
OI728
IV0.50
ContractEC260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume28
OI17853
IV0.49

Research Graph

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