EC NYSE Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Ecopetrol SA ADR · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

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Latest close 16.01 USD
-0.5% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 19.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 82.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.5%, after a 8.8% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 48/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 52/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 2d.

Setup score 70 out of 100
Latest Close 16.01 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return -0.5% latest completed week
4W Return 8.8% short-term follow-through
12W Return 15.0% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 100.0% 52 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.6x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 73-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
  • Latest weekly return ranks in the weaker part of its sector group.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -0.5% Latest completed week; four-week move 8.8%. Indicator stack 100/46 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 56.74% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Volatility 48/100 conviction; expected move 12.8%. News sentiment 52/100 53 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 2d Next report is scheduled for 03 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 19.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 82.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.5%, after a 8.8% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.6x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.8112-week average 0.88

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure7/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.81Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 8.8% over four weeks, 15.0% over 12 weeks, and 95.5% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 73 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-0.5%
4W8.8%
12W15.0%
26W34.2%
52W95.5%
Active trend streak73 weeks
Active weeks in one year52
Trend breadth100.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.12Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-76.8%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership29.63Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change18.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 96%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength25/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 76; rank 1 is best.
Value39/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 62; rank 1 is best.
Quality37/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 64; rank 1 is best.
Momentum39/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 62; rank 1 is best.
Growth39/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 62; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
-
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
-
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
32.6%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
21.9%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
35.8%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
9.7%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-12.8%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-37.9%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-24.7%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
4.1%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
-
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
2.3x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

EC shows volatility options pressure with a 48/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.58, expected move of 12.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction48/100
Expected move12.8%
Put/call volume0.58
Pressure36
Speculation33
Volatility77
Trend agreement68
Open options detail
Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 53 relevant articles.

12 positive · 34 neutral · 7 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings2dNext report is scheduled for 03 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move12.8%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-9.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.8%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher16 of 269 weeks finished lower.
Best week+9.4%Week of 12 Jun.
Worst week-11.2%Week of 26 Jun.
Latest week-0.5%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains9
Modest gains7
Flat weeks1
Modest losses5
Sharp losses4
Recent vol5.8%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split33/18Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.4% / -3.9%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape71/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 71/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis75/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 7/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.81; 2 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 56.74%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 56.74% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors33/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 50 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options54/100

EC shows volatility options pressure with a 48/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.58, expected move of 12.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 12.8% Sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 53 relevant articles.

EC|Ecopetrol SA|Price:17.035|Chg%:+0.635 Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings2d

Next report is scheduled for 03 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.

 Research flow5 items

2 recent research articles and 3 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 202616.01 USD-0.5%13.45 USD8.85 USD0.1229.639.2MOn
17 Jul 202616.09 USD3.3%13.23 USD8.79 USD0.0830.8213.0MOn
10 Jul 202615.58 USD6.0%12.98 USD8.73 USD0.1425.9012.2MOn
3 Jul 202614.70 USD-0.1%12.77 USD8.67 USD0.2721.358.9MOn
26 Jun 202614.72 USD-11.2%12.60 USD8.61 USD0.5124.9724.7MOn
19 Jun 202616.58 USD0.0%12.42 USD8.56 USD0.4838.4415.3MOn
12 Jun 202616.58 USD9.4%12.18 USD8.49 USD0.2340.9211.1MOn
5 Jun 202615.15 USD3.7%11.96 USD8.42 USD-0.0130.6917.0MOn
29 May 202614.61 USD5.5%11.77 USD8.36 USD-0.2723.9216.9MOn
22 May 202613.85 USD5.8%11.58 USD8.30 USD-0.2720.1014.6MOn
15 May 202613.09 USD3.6%11.41 USD8.25 USD-0.2515.2214.7MOn
8 May 202612.64 USD-9.2%11.26 USD8.20 USD-0.0312.1214.6MOn
1 May 202613.92 USD5.7%11.12 USD8.15 USD0.2927.0112.5MOn
24 Apr 202613.17 USD1.8%10.94 USD8.10 USD0.7122.2311.7MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.