Ticker Options Intelligence

MTG options intelligence

MGIC Investment Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 38 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 22:19 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

MTG currently carries bullish options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 5.2%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.05

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.32

Call-side skew

Trend fit 41

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +1.3%

RS 1.2

Expected move 5.2%
Put-call volume 0.32
Volume / OI 0.05
Reference IV 0.43
Max pain 30.00
Underlying 30.04
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 62

Research Brief

MTG has a bullish chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 28.47–31.61; The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00.

Priced range28.47–31.61
Call concentration30.00
Put concentration30.00
Max pain reference30.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 28.47 to 31.61. Max pain at 30.00 sits inside that range, 0.1% below spot.

Spot Max pain
28.4730.04 ± 1.5731.61
Confirmation level

A close beyond 31.61 or below 28.47 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 38/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 50/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure50 × 42%
+21.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation7 × 22%
+1.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement41 × 26%
+10.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility51 × 10%
+5.1

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score38.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
15.00-50.1%
0
0
17.50-41.7%
0
0
20.00-33.4%
0
1
22.50-25.1%
0
0
25.00-16.8%
0
13
30.00-0.1%
106
0
35.0016.5%
3
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.16× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.43 21 Aug 21d
0.30 18 Sep 49d
0.29 18 Dec 140d
0.20 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

25
30
35
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
62 / 62
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Call activity against legacy put OI

65/100
Primary intent Call activity against legacy put OI

Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4882 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · atm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+50
1W price+1.3%
Call premium83%
Put premium17%
Notional split C 83% / P 17% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.05 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 41/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM calls cluster with 40 contracts traded, $3500 estimated gross traded notional, and 72% of visible notional.
$3500
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $700 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$700
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $540 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$540
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $142 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$142

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close30.04
1W+1.3%
RS1.2
Fair value+28.5%
Options pressure50
Speculation7
Volatility51
Trend fit41

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.2% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.43 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.32 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.05 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:38 Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 6.9%
30 Jul 10:34 Bullish
Pressure 68
Move 10.9%
31 Jul 10:23 Bullish
Pressure 62
Move 6.0%
1 Aug 11:19 Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 5.3%
1 Aug 21:19 Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 5.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 40 · OI 106
Puts · V 10 · OI 13
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.25
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.30
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.29
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts16
Avg IV0.20
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.26
Skew-0.02
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.18
Put IV0.36
Skew0.18
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.33
Skew-0.02
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.07
Put IV0.26
Skew0.19

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractMTG260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume40
OI106
IV0.29
ContractMTG260821P00030000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume10
OI13
IV0.26
ContractMTG261218P00025000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike25.00
Volume3
OI164
IV0.33
ContractMTG260918C00025000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume1
OI9
IV0.42
ContractMTG260918P00025000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI224
IV0.23
ContractMTG260918C00030000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI217
IV0.43
ContractMTG260918P00022500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI79
IV0.34
ContractMTG261218C00035000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI57
IV0.35