Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
SBSW options intelligence
Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
40
Market data through 29 Jul 2026
Checked 30 Jul 2026 11:25 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
SBSW currently carries bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 13.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
13.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.38
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+4.5%
RS -34.0
Expected move
13.5%
Put-call volume
0.38
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.62
Max pain
9.00
Underlying
8.36
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
198
Research Brief
SBSW has a bullish chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 7.23–9.49; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.
Priced range7.23–9.49
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration7.00
Max pain reference9.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 7.23 to 9.49. Max pain at 9.00 sits inside that range, 7.7% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
7.238.36 ± 1.139.49
Confirmation level
A close beyond 9.49 or below 7.23 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 40/100
Pressure is 53/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure53 × 42%
+22.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility83 × 10%
+8.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
3.00-64.1%
0
0
4.00-52.2%
0
2
5.00-40.2%
1
21
6.00-28.2%
60
5569
7.00-16.3%
7
2489
8.00-4.3%
278
411
9.007.7%
2181
166
10.0019.6%
3645
54
11.0031.6%
3409
115
12.0043.5%
163
0
13.0055.5%
11
0
14.0067.5%
27
0
15.0079.4%
13
0
16.0091.4%
2
0
17.00103.3%
3
0
18.00115.3%
0
0
19.00127.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.62
21 Aug
22d
0.68
18 Sep
50d
0.67
16 Oct
78d
0.62
15 Jan
169d
0.58
21 Jan
540d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
7
8
9
10
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
No independently verifiable option-expiry outcomes have matured yet. Legacy snapshots without a point-in-time market reference and repeated same-session snapshots are deliberately excluded.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 29 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v1.x legacy
- Contracts
- 198 / 198
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $202158 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+53
1W price+4.5%
Call premium65%
Put premium35%
Notional split
C 65% / P 35%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 597 contracts traded, $63298 estimated gross traded notional, and 31% of visible notional.
$63298
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 199 contracts traded, $41840 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$41840
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 117 contracts traded, $26890 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$26890
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 77 contracts traded, $23030 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$23030
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 373 contracts traded, $20151 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$20151
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
1 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 1 completed session
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close8.36
1W+4.5%
RS-34.0
Fair value+17.6%
Options pressure53
Speculation40
Volatility83
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:30
Volatility
Pressure 76
Move 12.0%
30 Jul 10:25
Bullish
Pressure 53
Move 13.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 120 · OI 2
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 60
Puts · V 0 · OI 21
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 5569
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 278
Puts · V 11 · OI 2489
Strike9.00
Calls · V 31 · OI 2181
Puts · V 0 · OI 411
Strike10.00
Calls · V 23 · OI 3645
Puts · V 0 · OI 166
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.62
Put-call2.43
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.68
Put-call1.16
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.67
Put-call0.07
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts58
Avg IV0.62
Put-call0.23
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Contracts28
Avg IV0.58
Put-call0.05
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.62
Put IV0.58
Skew-0.04
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.57
Put IV0.74
Skew0.17
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.64
Put IV0.69
Skew0.05
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.63
Put IV0.65
Skew0.02
21 Jan 2028Balanced skew
Call IV0.63
Put IV0.66
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractSBSW260918P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume156
OI353
IV0.71
ContractSBSW280121C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike15.00
Volume140
OI8221
IV0.59
ContractSBSW260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume120
OI2
IV1.01
ContractSBSW261016C00009000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike9.00
Volume112
OI883
IV0.60
ContractSBSW270115C00009000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike9.00
Volume106
OI1095
IV0.55
ContractSBSW270115C00010000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume102
OI16492
IV0.58
ContractSBSW270115C00007000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike7.00
Volume101
OI7996
IV0.59
ContractSBSW260918C00009000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike9.00
Volume87
OI1545
IV0.62
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.