Ticker Options Intelligence

AXTI options intelligence

AXT Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 47 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 06:47 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

AXTI currently carries volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 32.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.19.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 32.4%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.19

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.36

Call-side skew

Trend fit 22

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +27.9%

RS 50.1

Expected move 32.4%
Put-call volume 0.36
Volume / OI 0.19
Reference IV 1.71
Max pain 44.50
Underlying 47.23
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 1294

Research Brief

AXTI has a volatility chain read with 47/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 31.90–62.56; The largest call open-interest concentration is 44.50; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 80.00.

Priced range31.90–62.56
Call concentration44.50
Put concentration25.00
Max pain reference44.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 31.90 to 62.56. Max pain at 44.50 sits inside that range, 5.8% below spot.

Spot Max pain
31.9047.23 ± 15.3362.56
Confirmation level

A close beyond 62.56 or below 31.90 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 47/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 53/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure53 × 42%
+22.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation45 × 22%
+9.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement22 × 26%
+5.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score47.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 44.50; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 80.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
588
25.00-47.1%
0
347
34.00-28.0%
50
109
40.00-15.3%
58
2
44.50-5.8%
1004
107
45.00-4.7%
87
103
50.005.9%
323
42
55.0016.5%
246
134
57.0020.7%
975
17
59.0024.9%
30
139
60.0027.0%
625
21
61.0029.2%
349
4
62.0031.3%
879
2
64.0035.5%
951
42
65.0037.6%
287
24
70.0048.2%
236
12
75.0058.8%
74
53
80.0069.4%
378
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.26× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.71 7 Aug 7d
1.57 14 Aug 14d
1.54 21 Aug 21d
1.45 28 Aug 28d
1.49 4 Sep 35d
1.41 11 Sep 42d
1.42 18 Sep 49d
1.45 20 Nov 112d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

38
39
40
40
41
42
43
43
44
45
46
46
47
48
49
49
50
52
53
54
56
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
1294 / 1294
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $32.9M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+53
1W price+27.9%
Call premium88%
Put premium12%
Notional split C 88% / P 12% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.19 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 22/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 8026 contracts traded, $15.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 47% of visible notional.
$15.3M
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM calls cluster with 9872 contracts traded, $3.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$3.6M
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 5197 contracts traded, $2.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$2.7M
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM calls cluster with 1225 contracts traded, $2.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$2.1M
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 842 contracts traded, $1.9M estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$1.9M

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close60.43
1W+27.9%
RS50.1
Fair value+312.9%
Options pressure53
Speculation45
Volatility96
Trend fit22

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 32.4% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.71 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.36 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.19 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:31 Volatility
Pressure 68
Move 21.0%
29 Jul 18:05 Volatility
Pressure 44
Move 23.8%
31 Jul 10:12 Bullish
Pressure 25
Move 18.1%
1 Aug 02:39 Volatility
Pressure 49
Move 28.8%
1 Aug 05:47 Volatility
Pressure 53
Move 32.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 19
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 327 · OI 588
Strike25.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 23
Strike26.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 12 · OI 30
Strike26.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 3
Strike27.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 12
Strike27.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 29
Strike28.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 27

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts176
Avg IV1.71
Put-call0.40
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts168
Avg IV1.57
Put-call0.84
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts160
Avg IV1.54
Put-call0.47
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts106
Avg IV1.45
Put-call0.70
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts86
Avg IV1.49
Put-call3.27

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.58
Put IV1.60
Skew0.02
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.46
Put IV1.55
Skew0.09
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.48
Put IV1.54
Skew0.06
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.40
Put IV1.45
Skew0.05
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.41
Put IV1.43
Skew0.02

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractAXTI270219C00055000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike55.00
Volume3495
OI92
IV1.40
ContractAXTI260807C00080000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume2045
OI378
IV1.71
ContractAXTI260807C00070000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume1805
OI236
IV1.62
ContractAXTI270219C00100000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike100.00
Volume1735
OI2760
IV1.36
ContractAXTI260807C00059000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike59.00
Volume1062
OI30
IV1.59
ContractAXTI260807C00060000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike60.00
Volume1037
OI625
IV1.59
ContractAXTI260807C00044500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike44.50
Volume1002
OI1004
IV2.01
ContractAXTI260821C00100000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume948
OI3201
IV1.50