Ticker Options Intelligence

PONY options intelligence

Pony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 52 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 08:27 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

PONY currently carries volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 9.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.14

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +10.4%

RS -45.6

Expected move 9.6%
Put-call volume 0.14
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.83
Max pain 7.50
Underlying 7.87
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 392

Research Brief

PONY has a volatility chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 7.12–8.62; The largest call open-interest concentration is 9.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 8.00.

Priced range7.12–8.62
Call concentration9.00
Put concentration7.00
Max pain reference7.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 7.12 to 8.62. Max pain at 7.50 sits inside that range, 4.7% below spot.

Spot Max pain
7.127.87 ± 0.758.62
Confirmation level

A close beyond 8.62 or below 7.12 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 52/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 86/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure86 × 42%
+35.9

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation31 × 22%
+6.7

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility94 × 10%
+9.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score52.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 9.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 8.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
11
2.50-68.2%
0
1
3.50-55.5%
1
2
4.50-42.8%
0
97
5.00-36.5%
0
30
5.50-30.1%
0
27
6.00-23.8%
0
90
6.50-17.4%
8
133
7.00-11.1%
66
122
7.50-4.7%
83
7
8.001.7%
217
40
8.508.0%
232
0
9.0014.4%
262
7
9.5020.7%
49
2
10.0027.1%
57
0
10.5033.4%
6
1
11.0039.8%
0
0
13.5071.5%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

0.94× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.83 7 Aug 7d
0.84 14 Aug 14d
0.94 21 Aug 21d
0.92 28 Aug 28d
0.88 4 Sep 35d
0.87 11 Sep 42d
0.92 18 Sep 49d
0.88 20 Nov 112d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

7
7
8
8
9
9
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
392 / 392
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

89/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $138708 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+86
1W price+10.4%
Call premium90%
Put premium10%
Notional split C 90% / P 10% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 11 Aug Matched earnings event is 9 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 305 contracts traded, $53072 estimated gross traded notional, and 38% of visible notional.
$53072
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 696 contracts traded, $25404 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$25404
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 85 contracts traded, $13514 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$13514
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 65 contracts traded, $7768 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$7768
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 49 contracts traded, $6118 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$6118

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close7.87
1W+10.4%
RS-45.6
Fair value-40.2%
Options pressure86
Speculation31
Volatility94
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 9.6% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.83 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.14 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:42 Volatility
Pressure 90
Move 10.2%
30 Jul 10:39 Volatility
Pressure 98
Move 12.3%
31 Jul 13:05 Volatility
Pressure 84
Move 12.6%
31 Jul 14:13 Volatility
Pressure 76
Move 14.0%
1 Aug 05:56 Volatility
Pressure 86
Move 15.6%
2 Aug 07:27 Volatility
Pressure 86
Move 9.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike3.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 97
Strike5.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 30
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 27

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.83
Put-call0.14
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV0.84
Put-call1.16
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.94
Put-call0.46
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.92
Put-call0.01
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.88
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.80
Put IV0.81
Skew0.02
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.83
Put IV0.86
Skew0.03
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.93
Put IV0.96
Skew0.03
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.54
Put IV0.95
Skew-0.59
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.88
Put IV0.91
Skew0.03

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractPONY260918C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume696
OI708
IV0.85
ContractPONY260828C00006500
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike6.50
Volume300
OI600
IV1.13
ContractPONY260807C00008000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike8.00
Volume179
OI217
IV0.75
ContractPONY260807C00009000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike9.00
Volume132
OI262
IV0.95
ContractPONY260807C00008500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike8.50
Volume105
OI232
IV0.80
ContractPONY260814P00006500
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike6.50
Volume86
OI23
IV0.94
ContractPONY260918C00007500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.50
Volume65
OI386
IV0.88
ContractPONY280121C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike15.00
Volume60
OI1620
IV0.86