Ticker Options Intelligence

AGX options intelligence

Argan Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 52 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:20 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

AGX currently carries volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 16.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 16.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.07

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 4.13

Put-side skew

Trend fit 32

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +0.3%

RS 20.5

Expected move 16.2%
Put-call volume 4.13
Volume / OI 0.07
Reference IV 0.83
Max pain 570.00
Underlying 568.92
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 928

Research Brief

AGX has a volatility chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 476.67–661.17; The largest call open-interest concentration is 900.00; the largest put concentration is 500.00. The most active strike by current volume is 550.00.

Priced range476.67–661.17
Call concentration900.00
Put concentration500.00
Max pain reference570.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 476.67 to 661.17. Max pain at 570.00 sits inside that range, 0.2% above spot.

Spot Max pain
476.67568.92 ± 92.25661.17
Confirmation level

A close beyond 661.17 or below 476.67 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 52/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 67/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure67 × 42%
+28.2

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation28 × 22%
+6.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement32 × 26%
+8.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score52.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 900.00; the largest put concentration is 500.00. The most active strike by current volume is 550.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
94
460.00-19.1%
1
111
480.00-15.6%
26
119
490.00-13.9%
75
289
500.00-12.1%
40
123
510.00-10.4%
24
73
520.00-8.6%
61
205
530.00-6.8%
19
30
540.00-5.1%
29
45
550.00-3.3%
29
33
560.00-1.6%
53
27
600.005.5%
31
54
650.0014.3%
26
29
680.0019.5%
48
12
700.0023.0%
90
14
750.0031.8%
77
1
820.0044.1%
103
0
900.0058.2%
132
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.04× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.83 21 Aug 22d
0.91 18 Sep 50d
0.86 16 Oct 78d
0.85 18 Dec 141d
0.83 15 Jan 169d
0.79 19 Nov 477d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

460
470
480
490
500
520
530
540
550
560
570
580
590
600
610
620
640
650
660
670
680
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
928 / 928
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.7M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · atm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-67
1W price+0.3%
Call premium18%
Put premium82%
Notional split C 18% / P 82% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.07 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 32/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 46-90 days · ATM
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM puts cluster with 103 contracts traded, $776345 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$776345
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 48 contracts traded, $734000 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$734000
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 340 contracts traded, $668498 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$668498
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 24 contracts traded, $342290 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$342290
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 28 contracts traded, $191397 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$191397

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close570.43
1W+0.3%
RS20.5
Fair value+166.2%
Options pressure-67
Speculation28
Volatility96
Trend fit32

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 16.2% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 0.83 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 4.13 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.07 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:29 Volatility
Pressure -43
Move 17.9%
30 Jul 10:24 Volatility
Pressure -13
Move 19.7%
31 Jul 10:20 Volatility
Pressure -67
Move 16.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike280.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike290.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike300.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 13
Strike310.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike320.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike330.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike340.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike350.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 32

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts160
Avg IV0.83
Put-call3.75
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts134
Avg IV0.91
Put-call10.73
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts142
Avg IV0.86
Put-call2.05
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts192
Avg IV0.85
Put-call62.00
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts144
Avg IV0.83
Put-call1.08

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.81
Put IV0.84
Skew0.03
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.90
Put IV0.93
Skew0.03
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.87
Put IV0.87
Skew-
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.86
Put IV0.85
Skew-0.01
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.85
Put IV0.83
Skew-0.02

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractAGX260918P00580000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike580.00
Volume100
OI389
IV0.90
ContractAGX260821P00550000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike550.00
Volume85
OI45
IV0.83
ContractAGX260821P00520000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike520.00
Volume74
OI73
IV0.84
ContractAGX260821P00430000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike430.00
Volume50
OI15
IV0.91
ContractAGX260821P00490000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike490.00
Volume34
OI119
IV0.86
ContractAGX260821P00500000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike500.00
Volume30
OI289
IV0.85
ContractAGX261218P00600000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike600.00
Volume30
OI124
IV0.85
ContractAGX260821P00600000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike600.00
Volume26
OI27
IV0.81