Ticker Options Intelligence

CRCT options intelligence

Cricut Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 54 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 30 Jul 2026 16:35 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

CRCT currently carries volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 46.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.23.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 46.5%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.23

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.10

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +5.2%

RS -10.3

Expected move 46.5%
Put-call volume 0.10
Volume / OI 0.23
Reference IV 1.89
Max pain 2.50
Underlying 4.46
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 13

Research Brief

CRCT has a volatility chain read with 54/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 2.39–6.53; The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50.

Priced range2.39–6.53
Call concentration5.00
Put concentration2.50
Max pain reference2.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 2.39 to 6.53. Max pain at 2.50 sits inside that range, 43.9% below spot.

Spot Max pain
2.394.46 ± 2.076.53
Confirmation level

A close beyond 6.53 or below 2.39 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 54/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 94/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure94 × 42%
+39.4

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation25 × 22%
+5.4

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score54.4Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-43.9%
11
0
5.0012.1%
189
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.72× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.89 21 Aug 22d
0.94 18 Sep 50d
0.70 18 Dec 141d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

5
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

No independently verifiable option-expiry outcomes have matured yet. Legacy snapshots without a point-in-time market reference and repeated same-session snapshots are deliberately excluded.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v1.x legacy
Contracts
13 / 13
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

85/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $48082 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+94
1W price+5.2%
Call premium97%
Put premium3%
Notional split C 97% / P 3% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.23 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 200 contracts traded, $43500 estimated gross traded notional, and 90% of visible notional.
$43500
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $2475 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$2475
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $1150 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$1150
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $400 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$400
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $244 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$244

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close4.69
1W+5.2%
RS-10.3
Fair value-3.7%
Options pressure94
Speculation25
Volatility96
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 46.5% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 1.89 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.10 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.23 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:15 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 17.4%
30 Jul 11:02 Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 62.8%
30 Jul 15:08 Volatility
Pressure 94
Move 50.8%
30 Jul 15:35 Volatility
Pressure 94
Move 46.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 10 · OI 11
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 189
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts2
Avg IV1.89
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts5
Avg IV0.94
Put-call0.10
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV0.70
Put-call0.22

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV1.01
Put IV-
Skew-
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.57
Put IV1.02
Skew0.45
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.51
Put IV1.55
Skew1.04

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCRCT261218P00002500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI1
IV1.55
ContractCRCT260918C00002500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.50
Volume200
OI83
IV1.62
ContractCRCT260918P00002500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.50
Volume10
OI12
IV1.02
ContractCRCT260821C00002500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.50
Volume10
OI11
IV2.78
ContractCRCT260918P00005000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume10
OI-
IV0.00
ContractCRCT261218C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike5.00
Volume4
OI142
IV0.51
ContractCRCT260918C00007500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.50
Volume4
OI34
IV1.49
ContractCRCT261218C00007500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike7.50
Volume4
OI22
IV0.61