Ticker Options Intelligence

AAP options intelligence

Advance Auto Parts Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 51 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 17:31 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

AAP currently carries bullish options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 5.9%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.23

Call-side skew

Trend fit 20

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -0.5%

RS -4.5

Expected move 5.9%
Put-call volume 0.23
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.57
Max pain 56.00
Underlying 55.54
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 808

Research Brief

AAP has a bullish chain read with 51/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 52.27–58.81; The largest call open-interest concentration is 60.00; the largest put concentration is 53.00. The most active strike by current volume is 57.00.

Priced range52.27–58.81
Call concentration60.00
Put concentration53.00
Max pain reference56.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 52.27 to 58.81. Max pain at 56.00 sits inside that range, 0.8% above spot.

Spot Max pain
52.2755.54 ± 3.2758.81
Confirmation level

A close beyond 58.81 or below 52.27 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 51/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 72/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure72 × 42%
+30.2

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation40 × 22%
+8.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement20 × 26%
+5.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility63 × 10%
+6.3

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score50.6Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 60.00; the largest put concentration is 53.00. The most active strike by current volume is 57.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
52
40.00-28.0%
0
117
44.00-20.8%
0
39
47.00-15.4%
0
8
47.50-14.5%
63
69
48.00-13.6%
0
11
48.50-12.7%
63
17
51.00-8.2%
4
750
53.00-4.6%
7
298
54.00-2.8%
49
32
55.00-1.0%
15
95
56.000.8%
6
112
57.002.6%
22
6
58.004.4%
22
5
60.008.0%
84
0
62.0011.6%
61
0
63.0013.4%
36
0
68.0022.4%
48
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

0.93× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.57 7 Aug 7d
0.55 14 Aug 14d
0.80 21 Aug 21d
0.77 28 Aug 28d
0.72 4 Sep 35d
0.67 11 Sep 42d
0.67 18 Sep 49d
0.66 18 Dec 140d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

45
46
47
47
48
48
49
50
50
52
53
54
56
57
58
60
61
62
63
65
66
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
808 / 808
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

82/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow before price confirmation

Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $265406 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+72
1W price-0.5%
Call premium82%
Put premium18%
Notional split C 82% / P 18% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 20/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 13 Aug Matched earnings event is 12 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 64 contracts traded, $46300 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$46300
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 185 contracts traded, $41068 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$41068
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 46 contracts traded, $36952 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$36952
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 136 contracts traded, $23922 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$23922
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 22 contracts traded, $19650 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$19650

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close55.54
1W-0.5%
RS-4.5
Fair value+5.7%
Options pressure72
Speculation40
Volatility63
Trend fit20

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.9% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.57 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.23 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:51 Bullish
Pressure 62
Move 6.3%
30 Jul 06:49 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 6.5%
31 Jul 06:01 Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 3.3%
1 Aug 16:31 Bullish
Pressure 72
Move 5.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 52
Strike41.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike42.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike43.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 14
Strike44.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 117
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 9

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV0.57
Put-call0.28
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts100
Avg IV0.55
Put-call0.31
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts86
Avg IV0.80
Put-call0.23
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.77
Put-call0.18
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.72
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.81
Put IV0.84
Skew0.04
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.57
Skew0.03
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.80
Put IV0.83
Skew0.04
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.73
Put IV0.77
Skew0.04
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.72
Put IV0.73
Skew0.01

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractAAP260807C00057000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike57.00
Volume101
OI22
IV0.52
ContractAAP260821C00062000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike62.00
Volume90
OI190
IV0.79
ContractAAP260807C00056000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike56.00
Volume88
OI6
IV0.52
ContractAAP260918C00065000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike65.00
Volume70
OI299
IV0.67
ContractAAP260821C00050000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume58
OI9521
IV0.82
ContractAAP260807C00058000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike58.00
Volume54
OI22
IV0.49
ContractAAP260918C00067500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike67.50
Volume42
OI132
IV0.66
ContractAAP260918C00062500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike62.50
Volume38
OI313
IV0.67