Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
TSEM options intelligence
Tower Semiconductor Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
50
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 15:49 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
TSEM currently carries volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.16.
Expected move
5.6%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.16
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.77
Balanced tape
Trend fit
99
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-0.3%
RS 53.0
Expected move
5.6%
Put-call volume
0.77
Volume / OI
0.16
Reference IV
1.39
Max pain
227.50
Underlying
233.37
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
962
Research Brief
TSEM has a volatility chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 220.22–246.52; The largest call open-interest concentration is 250.00; the largest put concentration is 190.00. The most active strike by current volume is 277.50.
Priced range220.22–246.52
Call concentration250.00
Put concentration190.00
Max pain reference227.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 220.22 to 246.52. Max pain at 227.50 sits inside that range, 2.5% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
220.22233.37 ± 13.15246.52
Confirmation level
A close beyond 246.52 or below 220.22 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 50/100
Pressure is 16/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure16 × 42%
+6.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation44 × 22%
+9.6
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement99 × 26%
+25.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility79 × 10%
+7.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 250.00; the largest put concentration is 190.00. The most active strike by current volume is 277.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
322
150.00-35.7%
0
290
170.00-27.2%
0
343
190.00-18.6%
11
231
200.00-14.3%
35
150
205.00-12.2%
70
340
210.00-10.0%
26
177
215.00-7.9%
14
102
227.50-2.5%
103
186
232.50-0.4%
19
0
237.501.8%
363
0
250.007.1%
457
0
277.5018.9%
145
0
280.0020.0%
181
0
290.0024.3%
222
0
295.0026.4%
372
0
300.0028.6%
161
0
390.0067.1%
111
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.39
31 Jul
0d
1.26
7 Aug
7d
1.15
14 Aug
14d
1.04
21 Aug
21d
1.03
28 Aug
28d
1.08
4 Sep
35d
0.98
18 Sep
49d
0.96
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
190
195
200
203
208
213
218
223
225
230
235
240
245
248
253
258
263
268
270
275
280
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 962 / 962
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $32.1M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+16
1W price-0.3%
Call premium48%
Put premium52%
Notional split
C 48% / P 52%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.16
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
99/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
3 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 369 contracts traded, $7.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$7.8M
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 2801 contracts traded, $6.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$6.7M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 477 contracts traded, $6.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$6.0M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 987 contracts traded, $4.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$4.5M
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 961 contracts traded, $1.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$1.4M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close233.37
1W-0.3%
RS53.0
Fair value+219.5%
Options pressure16
Speculation44
Volatility79
Trend fit99
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:13
Volatility
Pressure -27
Move 13.4%
30 Jul 10:10
Volatility
Pressure 19
Move 18.8%
31 Jul 05:40
Volatility
Pressure 61
Move 9.2%
31 Jul 13:48
Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 7.2%
31 Jul 14:49
Volatility
Pressure 16
Move 5.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 48
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 10
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 12
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 322
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 8
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 59
Strike162.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 4
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 158
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts118
Avg IV1.39
Put-call0.33
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV1.26
Put-call0.43
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV1.15
Put-call4.87
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts105
Avg IV1.04
Put-call0.20
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV1.03
Put-call1.02
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.75
Put IV1.46
Skew-0.29
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.17
Put IV1.34
Skew0.17
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.05
Put IV1.21
Skew0.16
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.99
Put IV1.16
Skew0.16
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.97
Put IV1.06
Skew0.09
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTSEM260807P00295000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike295.00
Volume-
OI211
IV1.59
ContractTSEM260807C00370000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike370.00
Volume-
OI138
IV1.76
ContractTSEM260821P00212500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike212.50
Volume-
OI61
IV1.11
ContractTSEM260821P00215000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike215.00
Volume-
OI44
IV1.20
ContractTSEM260821P00225000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike225.00
Volume-
OI38
IV1.13
ContractTSEM271217P00155000
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike155.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.83
ContractTSEM270115C00023000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike23.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.00
ContractTSEM260807P00217500
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike217.50
Volume-
OI19
IV1.35
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.