Ticker Options Intelligence

RUN options intelligence

Sunrun Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 40 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:26 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

RUN currently carries bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 6.0%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.02

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.40

Call-side skew

Trend fit 7

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -1.3%

RS -43.8

Expected move 6.0%
Put-call volume 0.40
Volume / OI 0.02
Reference IV 1.06
Max pain 10.50
Underlying 9.94
Nearest expiry 31 Jul 2026
Contracts 618

Research Brief

RUN has a bullish chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 9.35–10.53; The largest call open-interest concentration is 13.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00.

Priced range9.35–10.53
Call concentration13.00
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference10.50
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 31 Jul

Options imply 9.35 to 10.53. Max pain at 10.50 sits inside that range, 5.6% above spot.

Spot Max pain
9.359.94 ± 0.5910.53
Confirmation level

A close beyond 10.53 or below 9.35 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 40/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 51/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure51 × 42%
+21.4

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation40 × 22%
+8.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement7 × 26%
+1.9

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility80 × 10%
+8.0

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score40.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 13.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
152
7.00-29.6%
39
187
8.50-14.5%
8
835
9.00-9.5%
223
651
9.50-4.4%
167
1123
10.000.6%
1082
551
10.505.6%
1176
718
11.0010.7%
1503
150
11.5015.7%
535
739
12.0020.7%
710
54
12.5025.8%
1260
59
13.0030.8%
6432
22
14.0040.8%
534
2
14.5045.9%
316
1
15.0050.9%
280
2
16.0061.0%
290
0
16.5066.0%
148
1
18.0081.1%
143
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.18× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.06 31 Jul 1d
1.34 7 Aug 8d
1.11 14 Aug 15d
1.03 21 Aug 22d
1.05 28 Aug 29d
1.02 4 Sep 36d
0.97 11 Sep 43d
0.92 18 Sep 50d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

8
9
9
10
10
11
11
12
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
618 / 618
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

87/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $923424 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 0-7 days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+51
1W price-1.3%
Call premium38%
Put premium62%
Notional split C 38% / P 62% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.02 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 7/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 5 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM puts cluster with 1212 contracts traded, $268146 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$268146
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM puts cluster with 169 contracts traded, $147566 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$147566
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM calls cluster with 1469 contracts traded, $117668 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$117668
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 421 contracts traded, $90720 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$90720
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 592 contracts traded, $61632 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$61632

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close9.81
1W-1.3%
RS-43.8
Fair value-27.1%
Options pressure51
Speculation40
Volatility80
Trend fit7

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.0% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 1.06 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.40 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.02 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:50 Volatility
Pressure 71
Move 7.9%
30 Jul 10:41 Volatility
Pressure 73
Move 7.4%
31 Jul 10:26 Bullish
Pressure 51
Move 6.0%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike6.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 12
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike7.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 39
Puts · V 0 · OI 152
Strike8.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 16
Puts · V 2 · OI 111
Strike8.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 187
Strike9.00
Calls · V 205 · OI 223
Puts · V 473 · OI 835
Strike9.50
Calls · V 112 · OI 167
Puts · V 45 · OI 651
Strike10.00
Calls · V 790 · OI 1082
Puts · V 55 · OI 1123
Strike10.50
Calls · V 569 · OI 1176
Puts · V 41 · OI 551

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV1.06
Put-call0.72
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV1.34
Put-call0.48
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV1.11
Put-call0.95
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts82
Avg IV1.03
Put-call0.07
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV1.05
Put-call1.35

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.09
Put IV1.75
Skew0.66
7 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.39
Put IV1.08
Skew-0.31
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.98
Put IV0.96
Skew-0.02
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.93
Put IV0.87
Skew-0.06
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.00
Put IV1.01
Skew0.01

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractRUN260821C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume1410
OI1575
IV1.07
ContractRUN260731C00010000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike10.00
Volume790
OI1082
IV1.09
ContractRUN260731C00010500
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike10.50
Volume569
OI1176
IV1.26
ContractRUN260731P00009000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike9.00
Volume473
OI835
IV1.75
ContractRUN260821C00014000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike14.00
Volume440
OI11820
IV1.08
ContractRUN260821C00012000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.00
Volume324
OI1090
IV1.02
ContractRUN260731P00012000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike12.00
Volume310
OI739
IV0.01
ContractRUN260807P00011000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike11.00
Volume273
OI1188
IV1.25