Ticker Options Intelligence

TPL options intelligence

Texas Pacific Land Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 32 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 15:23 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

TPL currently carries mixed options pressure with a 32/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 10.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.05

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.89

Balanced tape

Trend fit 57

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +0.9%

RS 5.9

Expected move 10.6%
Put-call volume 0.89
Volume / OI 0.05
Reference IV 0.54
Max pain 400.00
Underlying 419.44
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 237

Research Brief

TPL has a mixed chain read with 32/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 374.89–463.99; The largest call open-interest concentration is 470.00; the largest put concentration is 390.00. The most active strike by current volume is 460.00.

Priced range374.89–463.99
Call concentration470.00
Put concentration390.00
Max pain reference400.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 374.89 to 463.99. Max pain at 400.00 sits inside that range, 4.6% below spot.

Spot Max pain
374.89419.44 ± 44.55463.99
Confirmation level

A close beyond 463.99 or below 374.89 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 32/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 10/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure10 × 42%
+4.3

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation21 × 22%
+4.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement57 × 26%
+14.8

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility78 × 10%
+7.8

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score31.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 470.00; the largest put concentration is 390.00. The most active strike by current volume is 460.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
25
280.00-33.2%
0
51
340.00-18.9%
0
38
350.00-16.6%
9
24
360.00-14.2%
15
38
370.00-11.8%
1
112
380.00-9.4%
112
158
390.00-7.0%
82
49
400.00-4.6%
187
41
410.00-2.3%
45
29
420.000.1%
247
14
430.002.5%
113
73
440.004.9%
186
5
450.007.3%
190
34
460.009.7%
86
1
470.0012.1%
1044
0
500.0019.2%
66
1
520.0024.0%
189
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.47× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.54 21 Aug 21d
0.53 18 Sep 49d
0.51 16 Oct 77d
0.37 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
480
490
500
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A99/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
237 / 237
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

77/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4.2M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+10
1W price+0.9%
Call premium27%
Put premium73%
Notional split C 27% / P 73% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.05 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 57/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 5 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 125 contracts traded, $2.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 52% of visible notional.
$2.2M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 225 contracts traded, $416235 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$416235
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 220 contracts traded, $309309 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$309309
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 253 contracts traded, $234358 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$234358
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 34 contracts traded, $223410 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$223410

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close419.44
1W+0.9%
RS5.9
Fair value+32.6%
Options pressure10
Speculation21
Volatility78
Trend fit57

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 10.6% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.54 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.89 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.05 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:14 Bullish
Pressure 29
Move 11.6%
30 Jul 10:11 Bullish
Pressure 38
Move 11.6%
31 Jul 06:50 Volatility
Pressure -59
Move 10.7%
31 Jul 14:23 Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 10.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike270.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike280.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 12 · OI 25
Strike290.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike300.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike310.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 4
Strike320.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 4
Strike330.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 3 · OI 11
Strike340.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 51

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts47
Avg IV0.54
Put-call1.86
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts21
Avg IV0.53
Put-call0.30
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts109
Avg IV0.51
Put-call1.39
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts60
Avg IV0.37
Put-call0.30

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.56
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.52
Skew-0.02
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.50
Skew-0.03
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.06

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractTPL260918C00460000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike460.00
Volume-
OI102
IV0.54
ContractTPL270115P00470000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike470.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.27
ContractTPL260821P00270000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike270.00
Volume-
OI10
IV1.07
ContractTPL261016P00660000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike660.00
Volume-
OI6
IV0.00
ContractTPL260821C00550000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike550.00
Volume-
OI6
IV0.77
ContractTPL260821C00560000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike560.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.80
ContractTPL260918C00410000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike410.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.54
ContractTPL260918C00580000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike580.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.68