Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
PII options intelligence
Polaris Industries Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
43
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:25 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
PII currently carries bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 11.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
11.9%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.32
Call-side skew
Trend fit
39
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.2%
RS 9.1
Expected move
11.9%
Put-call volume
0.32
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.46
Max pain
70.00
Underlying
73.04
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
212
Research Brief
PII has a bullish chain read with 43/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 64.34–81.74; The largest call open-interest concentration is 90.00; the largest put concentration is 65.00. The most active strike by current volume is 70.00.
Priced range64.34–81.74
Call concentration90.00
Put concentration65.00
Max pain reference70.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 64.34 to 81.74. Max pain at 70.00 sits inside that range, 4.2% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
64.3473.04 ± 8.7081.74
Confirmation level
A close beyond 81.74 or below 64.34 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 43/100
Pressure is 58/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure58 × 42%
+24.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation7 × 22%
+1.4
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement39 × 26%
+10.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility73 × 10%
+7.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 90.00; the largest put concentration is 65.00. The most active strike by current volume is 70.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
35.00-52.1%
0
13
40.00-45.2%
0
0
45.00-38.4%
0
44
50.00-31.5%
0
119
55.00-24.7%
0
103
60.00-17.9%
55
459
65.00-11.0%
13
68
70.00-4.2%
239
16
75.002.7%
192
1
80.009.5%
566
0
85.0016.4%
176
0
90.0023.2%
1153
25
95.0030.1%
29
0
100.0036.9%
13
0
105.0043.8%
2
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.46
21 Aug
22d
0.45
18 Sep
50d
0.51
18 Dec
141d
0.50
15 Jan
169d
0.51
19 Mar
232d
0.50
21 Jan
540d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
60
65
70
75
80
85
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 212 / 212
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $51602 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+58
1W price-0.2%
Call premium92%
Put premium8%
Notional split
C 92% / P 8%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
39/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $23280 estimated gross traded notional, and 45% of visible notional.
$23280
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 53 contracts traded, $18418 estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$18418
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 14 contracts traded, $3400 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$3400
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 16 contracts traded, $1990 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$1990
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 12 contracts traded, $1830 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$1830
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close73.04
1W-0.2%
RS9.1
Fair value+10.7%
Options pressure58
Speculation7
Volatility73
Trend fit39
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:44
Mixed
Pressure -16
Move 10.2%
30 Jul 10:40
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 13.6%
31 Jul 10:25
Bullish
Pressure 58
Move 11.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 13
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 44
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 119
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 55
Puts · V 0 · OI 103
Strike65.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 13
Puts · V 1 · OI 459
Strike70.00
Calls · V 12 · OI 239
Puts · V 0 · OI 68
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.04
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.45
Put-call0.28
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.51
Put-call6.00
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts48
Avg IV0.50
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts32
Avg IV0.51
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.42
Skew-0.04
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.03
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.51
Skew0.06
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.52
Skew0.04
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.55
Skew0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPII260918C00070000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike70.00
Volume53
OI101
IV0.41
ContractPII260918P00055000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike55.00
Volume14
OI76
IV0.50
ContractPII260821C00070000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume12
OI239
IV0.41
ContractPII261218P00050000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike50.00
Volume12
OI15
IV0.52
ContractPII270115C00040000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike40.00
Volume8
OI625
IV0.45
ContractPII260821C00080000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume7
OI566
IV0.54
ContractPII260918C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume4
OI265
IV0.44
ContractPII260821C00075000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike75.00
Volume3
OI192
IV0.46
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.