Ticker Options Intelligence

ET options intelligence

Energy Transfer LP options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 43 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 17:56 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

ET currently carries bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 3.5%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.05

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.58

Call-side skew

Trend fit 57

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +0.0%

RS 5.9

Expected move 3.5%
Put-call volume 0.58
Volume / OI 0.05
Reference IV 0.31
Max pain 20.00
Underlying 20.36
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 654

Research Brief

ET has a bullish chain read with 43/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 19.64–21.08; The largest call open-interest concentration is 20.50; the largest put concentration is 19.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00.

Priced range19.64–21.08
Call concentration20.50
Put concentration19.00
Max pain reference20.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 19.64 to 21.08. Max pain at 20.00 sits inside that range, 1.8% below spot.

Spot Max pain
19.6420.36 ± 0.7221.08
Confirmation level

A close beyond 21.08 or below 19.64 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 43/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 36/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure36 × 42%
+15.3

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement57 × 26%
+14.8

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility36 × 10%
+3.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score42.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 20.50; the largest put concentration is 19.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
11.00-46.0%
1
3
12.00-41.1%
4
2
13.00-36.1%
22
2
15.00-26.3%
10
0
16.50-19.0%
10
1245
17.00-16.5%
0
14
17.50-14.0%
1
100
18.00-11.6%
129
78
18.50-9.1%
4
3804
19.00-6.7%
533
1837
19.50-4.2%
298
1732
20.00-1.8%
2304
250
20.500.7%
7554
1403
21.003.1%
1973
2
21.505.6%
57
102
22.008.1%
286
100
22.5010.5%
6
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.52× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.31 7 Aug 7d
0.27 14 Aug 14d
0.24 21 Aug 21d
0.21 28 Aug 28d
0.20 4 Sep 35d
0.19 11 Sep 42d
0.20 18 Sep 49d
0.19 16 Oct 77d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

17
17
18
18
19
19
20
20
21
21
22
22
23
23
24
24
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
654 / 654
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Call-heavy activity with trend alignment

86/100
Primary intent Call-heavy activity with trend alignment

Call concentration and the underlying trend align, but aggregate volume cannot establish whether calls were bought or sold.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow before price confirmation

Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.

Why this matters

Call-heavy activity with trend alignment matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.6M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+36
1W price+0.0%
Call premium66%
Put premium34%
Notional split C 66% / P 34% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.05 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 57/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 17225 contracts traded, $472530 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$472530
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 15119 contracts traded, $459936 estimated gross traded notional, and 28% of visible notional.
$459936
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 587 contracts traded, $222836 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$222836
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 4291 contracts traded, $107691 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$107691
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM calls cluster with 2574 contracts traded, $92221 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$92221

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close20.36
1W+0.0%
RS5.9
Fair value+32.5%
Options pressure36
Speculation41
Volatility36
Trend fit57

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 3.5% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.31 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.58 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.05 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:06 Bullish
Pressure 75
Move 1.9%
30 Jul 10:04 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 1.9%
31 Jul 05:15 Bullish
Pressure 42
Move 1.4%
1 Aug 00:15 Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 0.6%
1 Aug 16:56 Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 3.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike11.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 4 · OI 1
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 22
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike14.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 2 · OI 2
Strike15.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike16.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.45
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.27
Put-call0.04
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.24
Put-call0.23
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.21
Put-call0.40
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.20
Put-call0.01

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.36
Skew0.13
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.19
Put IV0.30
Skew0.11
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.29
Skew0.13
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.28
Skew0.12
4 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.26
Skew0.12

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractET261016P00019000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike19.00
Volume15062
OI7209
IV0.24
ContractET270115C00023000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike23.00
Volume14912
OI2634
IV0.18
ContractET260918C00021000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike21.00
Volume3517
OI10247
IV0.16
ContractET260807C00020000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume1501
OI2304
IV0.21
ContractET281215C00037000
SideCall
Expiry15 Dec 2028
Strike37.00
Volume1465
OI2656
IV0.20
ContractET260904C00021000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike21.00
Volume1247
OI21867
IV0.14
ContractET260807C00020500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike20.50
Volume1073
OI7554
IV0.23
ContractET260807P00020000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume695
OI1732
IV0.36