Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
UAN options intelligence
CVR Partners LP options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
51
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 30 Jul 2026 18:36 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
UAN currently carries volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.27.
Expected move
10.8%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.27
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.38
Call-side skew
Trend fit
43
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+4.8%
RS 13.7
Expected move
10.8%
Put-call volume
0.38
Volume / OI
0.27
Reference IV
0.58
Max pain
105.00
Underlying
123.06
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
202
Research Brief
UAN has a volatility chain read with 51/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 109.76–136.36; The largest call open-interest concentration is 145.00; the largest put concentration is 145.00. The most active strike by current volume is 60.00.
Priced range109.76–136.36
Call concentration145.00
Put concentration145.00
Max pain reference105.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 109.76 to 136.36. Max pain at 105.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
109.76123.06 ± 13.30136.36
Confirmation level
A close beyond 136.36 or below 109.76 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 51/100
Pressure is 52/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure52 × 42%
+21.9
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation46 × 22%
+10.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement43 × 26%
+11.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility81 × 10%
+8.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 145.00; the largest put concentration is 145.00. The most active strike by current volume is 60.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
34
60.00-51.2%
10
35
90.00-26.9%
854
51
95.00-22.8%
233
106
100.00-18.7%
96
49
105.00-14.7%
264
23
110.00-10.6%
140
57
115.00-6.5%
28
179
120.00-2.5%
362
37
125.001.6%
468
6
130.005.6%
149
3
135.009.7%
541
1
140.0013.8%
186
873
145.0017.8%
984
3
150.0021.9%
121
7
160.0030.0%
80
2
175.0042.2%
118
11
200.0062.5%
92
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.58
21 Aug
22d
0.49
18 Sep
50d
0.41
20 Nov
113d
0.57
19 Feb
204d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 202 / 202
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $9.8M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+52
1W price+4.8%
Call premium83%
Put premium17%
Notional split
C 83% / P 17%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.27
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
43/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1269 contracts traded, $7.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 79% of visible notional.
$7.7M
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 295 contracts traded, $784260 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$784260
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 153 contracts traded, $406260 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$406260
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 38 contracts traded, $253490 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$253490
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 142 contracts traded, $193140 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$193140
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close128.99
1W+4.8%
RS13.7
Fair value+68.1%
Options pressure52
Speculation46
Volatility81
Trend fit43
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:09
Bullish
Pressure 34
Move 14.6%
30 Jul 10:56
Bullish
Pressure 47
Move 13.7%
30 Jul 17:36
Volatility
Pressure 52
Move 10.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 8 · OI 13
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 11
Strike60.00
Calls · V 1040 · OI 10
Puts · V 4 · OI 34
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 17
Strike70.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 22
Puts · V 4 · OI 0
Strike75.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike80.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 5 · OI 14
Strike85.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 4
Puts · V 1 · OI 12
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV0.58
Put-call0.25
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts47
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.68
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.41
Put-call1.27
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts39
Avg IV0.57
Put-call1.08
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.62
Skew0.23
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.62
Skew0.19
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.70
Skew0.26
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.73
Skew0.33
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractUAN260918C00065000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike65.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.00
ContractUAN260918P00165000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike165.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.91
ContractUAN260821C00050000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.00
ContractUAN261120P00130000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike130.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.04
ContractUAN260918P00145000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike145.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.74
ContractUAN260821P00180000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike180.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.59
ContractUAN260918C00080000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike80.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractUAN260821C00065000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike65.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.