Ticker Options Intelligence

CNH options intelligence

CNH Industrial N.V. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 37 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 21:24 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

CNH currently carries mixed options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 9.0%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.06

Balanced tape

Trend fit 61

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +4.8%

RS -3.9

Expected move 9.0%
Put-call volume 1.06
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 1.58
Max pain 10.00
Underlying 11.15
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 56

Research Brief

CNH has a mixed chain read with 37/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 10.15–12.15; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00.

Priced range10.15–12.15
Call concentration12.50
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference10.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 10.15 to 12.15. Max pain at 10.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
10.1511.15 ± 1.0012.15
Confirmation level

A close beyond 12.15 or below 10.15 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 37/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 7/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure7 × 42%
+2.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation40 × 22%
+8.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement61 × 26%
+15.9

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility92 × 10%
+9.2

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score36.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-77.6%
1
0
5.00-55.2%
6
0
7.50-32.7%
1
516
10.00-10.3%
59
11
12.5012.1%
4038
0
15.0034.5%
2
0
17.5057.0%
0
0
20.0079.4%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.78× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.58 21 Aug 21d
0.58 18 Sep 49d
0.57 18 Dec 140d
0.48 15 Jan 168d
0.57 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

10
13
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A96/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest98%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
56 / 56
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

84/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $72980 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+7
1W price+4.8%
Call premium43%
Put premium57%
Notional split C 43% / P 57% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 61/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 19 contracts traded, $14420 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$14420
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 72 contracts traded, $14335 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$14335
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 14 contracts traded, $13055 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$13055
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 190 contracts traded, $7795 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$7795
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $6750 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$6750

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close11.15
1W+4.8%
RS-3.9
Fair value+0.4%
Options pressure7
Speculation40
Volatility92
Trend fit61

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 9.0% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.58 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.06 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:24 Bullish
Pressure 56
Move 15.2%
30 Jul 10:21 Bullish
Pressure 23
Move 11.9%
30 Jul 19:17 Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 9.2%
31 Jul 20:24 Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 9.0%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 12 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 6 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 52 · OI 59
Puts · V 98 · OI 516
Strike12.50
Calls · V 23 · OI 4038
Puts · V 1 · OI 11
Strike15.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts11
Avg IV1.58
Put-call1.01
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV0.58
Put-call0.61
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV0.57
Put-call0.50
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.48
Put-call1.95
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts1
Avg IV0.57
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.75
Put IV0.47
Skew-0.28
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.64
Put IV0.75
Skew0.11
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.59
Skew0.14
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.09
19 Mar 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV0.57
Put IV-
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCNH260821P00017500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.50
ContractCNH260918P00015000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.17
ContractCNH270319C00012500
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.57
ContractCNH261218P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractCNH261218P00020000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI-
IV1.16
ContractCNH260918C00007500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractCNH260918C00017500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.25
ContractCNH260918C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI-
IV2.24