Ticker Options Intelligence

RXRX options intelligence

Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 57 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 18:15 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

RXRX currently carries volatility options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 9.5%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.02

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.09

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +1.4%

RS -33.6

Expected move 9.5%
Put-call volume 0.09
Volume / OI 0.02
Reference IV 0.87
Max pain 2.50
Underlying 3.00
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 328

Research Brief

RXRX has a volatility chain read with 57/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 2.72–3.28; The largest call open-interest concentration is 3.50; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 3.00.

Priced range2.72–3.28
Call concentration3.50
Put concentration2.50
Max pain reference2.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 2.72 to 3.28. Max pain at 2.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
2.723.00 ± 0.293.29
Confirmation level

A close beyond 3.28 or below 2.72 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 57/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 93/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure93 × 42%
+39.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation40 × 22%
+8.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility94 × 10%
+9.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score57.4Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 3.50; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 3.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
4
0.50-83.3%
758
2
1.00-66.7%
376
1
1.50-50.0%
315
2
2.00-33.3%
79
2066
2.50-16.7%
14
608
3.000.0%
993
120
3.5016.7%
1913
26
4.0033.3%
351
5
4.5050.0%
458
0
5.0066.7%
225
1
5.5083.3%
32
0
6.00100.0%
13
0
6.50116.7%
15
0
7.50150.0%
3
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.79× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.87 7 Aug 7d
0.49 14 Aug 14d
1.11 21 Aug 21d
0.32 28 Aug 28d
0.42 4 Sep 35d
0.18 11 Sep 42d
1.02 18 Sep 49d
1.04 20 Nov 112d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

3
3
4
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
328 / 328
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

86/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $137872 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+93
1W price+1.4%
Call premium81%
Put premium19%
Notional split C 81% / P 19% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.02 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 1 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 4949 contracts traded, $83472 estimated gross traded notional, and 61% of visible notional.
$83472
Puts · 91+ days · ATM puts cluster with 297 contracts traded, $20262 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$20262
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 80 contracts traded, $7768 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$7768
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM calls cluster with 320 contracts traded, $4640 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$4640
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM puts cluster with 110 contracts traded, $3230 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$3230

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close3.00
1W+1.4%
RS-33.6
Fair value-53.2%
Options pressure93
Speculation40
Volatility94
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 9.5% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.87 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.09 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.02 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:02 Volatility
Pressure 79
Move 6.3%
30 Jul 13:18 Bullish
Pressure 52
Move 7.4%
31 Jul 11:01 Bullish
Pressure 54
Move 3.7%
31 Jul 15:12 Mixed
Pressure 4
Move 2.0%
31 Jul 18:53 Bullish
Pressure 32
Move 1.7%
31 Jul 23:22 Bullish
Pressure 33
Move 2.7%
2 Aug 17:15 Volatility
Pressure 93
Move 9.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike0.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 758
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike1.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 376
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike1.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 315
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike2.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 79
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 14
Puts · V 0 · OI 2066
Strike3.00
Calls · V 320 · OI 993
Puts · V 106 · OI 608
Strike3.50
Calls · V 35 · OI 1913
Puts · V 0 · OI 120
Strike4.00
Calls · V 46 · OI 351
Puts · V 1 · OI 26

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.87
Put-call0.26
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.13
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV1.11
Put-call0.80
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.10
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.42
Put-call0.04

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.10
Put IV0.88
Skew-0.21
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.01
Put IV0.63
Skew-0.38
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.90
Put IV0.51
Skew-0.39
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.04
Skew-0.32
4 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.91
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.51

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractRXRX270115C00020000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume4017
OI15695
IV1.44
ContractRXRX280121C00012000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike12.00
Volume395
OI7068
IV1.06
ContractRXRX260807C00003000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike3.00
Volume320
OI993
IV0.90
ContractRXRX270115P00003000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike3.00
Volume253
OI6697
IV0.91
ContractRXRX270115C00005000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike5.00
Volume129
OI37638
IV0.97
ContractRXRX260807P00003000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike3.00
Volume106
OI608
IV0.85
ContractRXRX260821P00003000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike3.00
Volume103
OI2236
IV1.06
ContractRXRX260904C00003000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike3.00
Volume87
OI42
IV0.52