Ticker Options Intelligence

TAK options intelligence

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 50 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 20:38 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

TAK currently carries volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.15.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 5.1%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.15

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.19

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -0.9%

RS -1.7

Expected move 5.1%
Put-call volume 0.19
Volume / OI 0.15
Reference IV 1.12
Max pain 15.00
Underlying 17.24
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 37

Research Brief

TAK has a volatility chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 16.37–18.11; The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50.

Priced range16.37–18.11
Call concentration17.50
Put concentration5.00
Max pain reference15.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 16.37 to 18.11. Max pain at 15.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
16.3717.24 ± 0.8718.11
Confirmation level

A close beyond 18.11 or below 16.37 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 50/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 78/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure78 × 42%
+32.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation43 × 22%
+9.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility76 × 10%
+7.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score50.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
3
5.00-71.0%
0
1
7.50-56.5%
0
1
15.00-13.0%
94
2
17.501.5%
274
0
20.0016.0%
38
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.63× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.12 21 Aug 21d
0.56 18 Sep 49d
0.39 16 Oct 77d
0.42 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

15
18
20
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A96/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
37 / 37
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

83/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $46328 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+78
1W price-0.9%
Call premium80%
Put premium20%
Notional split C 80% / P 20% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.15 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 33 contracts traded, $14330 estimated gross traded notional, and 31% of visible notional.
$14330
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 15 contracts traded, $9430 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$9430
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 4 contracts traded, $5270 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$5270
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $4400 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$4400
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM calls cluster with 54 contracts traded, $3250 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$3250

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close17.09
1W-0.9%
RS-1.7
Fair value+20.0%
Options pressure78
Speculation43
Volatility76
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.1% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.12 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.19 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.15 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:10 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 5.9%
30 Jul 10:05 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 8.6%
30 Jul 17:55 Volatility
Pressure 82
Move 5.2%
31 Jul 08:04 Bullish
Pressure 80
Move 5.8%
31 Jul 19:38 Volatility
Pressure 78
Move 5.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike15.00
Calls · V 20 · OI 94
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike17.50
Calls · V 20 · OI 274
Puts · V 16 · OI 2
Strike20.00
Calls · V 30 · OI 38
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts7
Avg IV1.12
Put-call0.26
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts3
Avg IV0.56
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.39
Put-call0.17
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts11
Avg IV0.42
Put-call0.19

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.73
Skew0.46
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV-
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.54
Skew0.19
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.53
Skew0.28

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractTAK260821P00007500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI1
IV2.71
ContractTAK261016P00020000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.67
ContractTAK261016C00035000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.12
ContractTAK261016C00007500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractTAK270115C00007500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractTAK270115C00020000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume82
OI127
IV0.37
ContractTAK261016C00017500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike17.50
Volume53
OI471
IV0.35
ContractTAK260821C00020000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume30
OI38
IV0.59