Ticker Options Intelligence

NWL options intelligence

Newell Brands Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 59 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 03:01 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

NWL currently carries volatility options pressure with a 59/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 18.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 18.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.17

Call-side skew

Trend fit 29

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -2.9%

RS 7.2

Expected move 18.2%
Put-call volume 0.17
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 1.04
Max pain 5.00
Underlying 5.08
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 140

Research Brief

NWL has a volatility chain read with 59/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 4.15–6.01; The largest call open-interest concentration is 6.00; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.

Priced range4.15–6.01
Call concentration6.00
Put concentration5.00
Max pain reference5.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 4.15 to 6.01. Max pain at 5.00 sits inside that range, 1.6% below spot.

Spot Max pain
4.155.08 ± 0.936.01
Confirmation level

A close beyond 6.01 or below 4.15 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 59/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 78/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure78 × 42%
+32.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement29 × 26%
+7.4

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score58.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 6.00; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
1.00-80.3%
18
14
2.00-60.6%
0
34
3.00-40.9%
7
581
4.00-21.3%
568
944
5.00-1.6%
5279
149
6.0018.1%
7288
26
7.0037.8%
875
0
8.0057.5%
2209
7
9.0077.2%
118
0
10.0096.9%
4
0
11.00116.5%
1
0
12.00136.2%
36
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.56× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.04 21 Aug 22d
0.78 18 Sep 50d
0.80 18 Dec 141d
0.68 15 Jan 169d
0.55 19 Mar 232d
0.66 21 Jan 540d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

5
6
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
140 / 140
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

95/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $133847 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · atm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+78
1W price-2.9%
Call premium95%
Put premium5%
Notional split C 95% / P 5% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 29/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 31 Jul Matched earnings event is 0 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM calls cluster with 2033 contracts traded, $111815 estimated gross traded notional, and 84% of visible notional.
$111815
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 50 contracts traded, $7625 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$7625
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 31 contracts traded, $3178 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$3178
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 164 contracts traded, $2670 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$2670
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 246 contracts traded, $2460 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$2460

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close5.08
1W-2.9%
RS7.2
Fair value-15.9%
Options pressure78
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit29

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 18.2% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 1.04 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.17 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:07 Volatility
Pressure 86
Move 20.2%
30 Jul 04:26 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 20.2%
30 Jul 14:52 Volatility
Pressure 91
Move 20.2%
30 Jul 15:36 Volatility
Pressure 74
Move 19.2%
30 Jul 18:23 Volatility
Pressure 75
Move 19.7%
30 Jul 18:57 Volatility
Pressure 75
Move 19.2%
30 Jul 19:52 Volatility
Pressure 71
Move 18.2%
31 Jul 02:01 Volatility
Pressure 78
Move 18.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 18
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 134 · OI 14
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 34
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 568
Puts · V 112 · OI 581
Strike5.00
Calls · V 2033 · OI 5279
Puts · V 40 · OI 944
Strike6.00
Calls · V 148 · OI 7288
Puts · V 0 · OI 149
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 875
Puts · V 0 · OI 26
Strike8.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 2209
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV1.04
Put-call0.13
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.78
Put-call4.48
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.80
Put-call10.00
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts32
Avg IV0.68
Put-call0.01
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.55
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.88
Put IV1.05
Skew0.17
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.77
Put IV0.81
Skew0.05
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.63
Put IV0.79
Skew0.16
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.72
Skew0.07
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.73
Skew0.08

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractNWL260821C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume2033
OI5279
IV0.95
ContractNWL260821C00006000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike6.00
Volume148
OI7288
IV0.88
ContractNWL260821P00002000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.00
Volume134
OI14
IV1.86
ContractNWL260821P00004000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike4.00
Volume112
OI581
IV1.05
ContractNWL260918P00004000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike4.00
Volume93
OI529
IV0.81
ContractNWL270115C00004000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike4.00
Volume50
OI546
IV0.64
ContractNWL260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume40
OI944
IV0.91
ContractNWL270115C00005000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike5.00
Volume31
OI5107
IV0.67