Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
MSCI options intelligence
MSCI Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
40
Market data through 29 Jul 2026
Checked 30 Jul 2026 05:30 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
MSCI currently carries mixed options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
8.3%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.76
Balanced tape
Trend fit
77
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-12.4%
RS -10.0
Expected move
8.3%
Put-call volume
0.76
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.31
Max pain
580.00
Underlying
550.79
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
552
Research Brief
MSCI has a mixed chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 505.24–596.34; The largest call open-interest concentration is 670.00; the largest put concentration is 500.00. The most active strike by current volume is 540.00.
Priced range505.24–596.34
Call concentration670.00
Put concentration500.00
Max pain reference580.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 505.24 to 596.34. Max pain at 580.00 sits inside that range, 5.3% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
505.24550.79 ± 45.55596.34
Confirmation level
A close beyond 596.34 or below 505.24 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 40/100
Pressure is 14/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure14 × 42%
+5.9
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement77 × 26%
+20.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility55 × 10%
+5.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 670.00; the largest put concentration is 500.00. The most active strike by current volume is 540.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
354
500.00-9.2%
2
243
510.00-7.4%
0
168
520.00-5.6%
1
146
530.00-3.8%
0
69
540.00-2.0%
2
161
550.00-0.1%
5
189
570.003.5%
235
196
580.005.3%
20
71
600.008.9%
71
11
610.0010.8%
86
133
620.0012.6%
49
6
630.0014.4%
146
27
650.0018.0%
166
0
660.0019.8%
129
0
670.0021.6%
552
0
680.0023.5%
96
0
750.0036.2%
166
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.31
21 Aug
22d
0.31
18 Sep
50d
0.31
16 Oct
78d
0.32
18 Dec
141d
0.32
19 Mar
232d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
450
460
470
480
490
500
510
520
530
540
550
570
580
590
600
610
620
630
640
650
660
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
No independently verifiable option-expiry outcomes have matured yet. Legacy snapshots without a point-in-time market reference and repeated same-session snapshots are deliberately excluded.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 29 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v1.x legacy
- Contracts
- 552 / 552
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $336518 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+14
1W price-12.4%
Call premium78%
Put premium22%
Notional split
C 78% / P 22%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
77/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 69 contracts traded, $173580 estimated gross traded notional, and 52% of visible notional.
$173580
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 71 contracts traded, $71995 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$71995
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 62 contracts traded, $35140 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$35140
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 11 contracts traded, $20190 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$20190
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $11880 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$11880
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
1 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 1 completed session
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close550.79
1W-12.4%
RS-10.0
Fair value+0.8%
Options pressure14
Speculation41
Volatility55
Trend fit77
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:10
Bearish
Pressure -19
Move 8.0%
30 Jul 04:30
Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 8.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike320.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike330.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike340.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike350.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike360.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike370.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike380.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike390.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts106
Avg IV0.31
Put-call1.26
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts110
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.20
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts106
Avg IV0.31
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts126
Avg IV0.32
Put-call1.00
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts104
Avg IV0.32
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.32
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.31
Skew0.02
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.33
Skew0.05
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.35
Skew0.07
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.34
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMSCI260918C00580000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike580.00
Volume54
OI5
IV0.29
ContractMSCI260821P00540000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike540.00
Volume40
OI69
IV0.33
ContractMSCI260821C00590000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike590.00
Volume34
OI29
IV0.27
ContractMSCI260821P00560000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike560.00
Volume18
OI45
IV0.33
ContractMSCI260821C00610000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike610.00
Volume16
OI86
IV0.28
ContractMSCI260918C00600000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike600.00
Volume11
OI600
IV0.29
ContractMSCI260821P00580000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike580.00
Volume10
OI196
IV0.31
ContractMSCI260821P00530000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike530.00
Volume9
OI146
IV0.33
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.