Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
EBAY options intelligence
eBay Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
47
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 23:26 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
EBAY currently carries volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
8.0%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.51
Call-side skew
Trend fit
61
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+4.2%
RS 10.0
Expected move
8.0%
Put-call volume
0.51
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.71
Max pain
114.00
Underlying
114.01
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1112
Research Brief
EBAY has a volatility chain read with 47/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 104.88–123.14; The largest call open-interest concentration is 113.00; the largest put concentration is 114.00. The most active strike by current volume is 114.00.
Priced range104.88–123.14
Call concentration113.00
Put concentration114.00
Max pain reference114.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 104.88 to 123.14. Max pain at 114.00 sits inside that range, 0.0% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
104.88114.01 ± 9.13123.14
Confirmation level
A close beyond 123.14 or below 104.88 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 47/100
Pressure is 34/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure34 × 42%
+14.1
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement61 × 26%
+16.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility81 × 10%
+8.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 113.00; the largest put concentration is 114.00. The most active strike by current volume is 114.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
44
101.00-11.4%
0
79
105.00-7.9%
14
71
106.00-7.0%
0
18
109.00-4.4%
35
152
110.00-3.5%
42
29
111.00-2.6%
13
2
112.00-1.8%
28
59
113.00-0.9%
95
1951
114.000.0%
69
6
115.000.9%
94
18
116.001.7%
39
1
119.004.4%
35
1
120.005.3%
37
0
124.008.8%
55
0
125.009.6%
36
0
130.0014.0%
18
0
140.0022.8%
70
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$4.6MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak115.00+$2.9M
Negative peak114.00-$848,394
Nearest balance114.23Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
104.00-8.8%
-$4,830
105.00-7.9%
-$228,572
106.00-7.0%
-$40,333
107.00-6.1%
-$723
108.00-5.3%
-$12,753
109.00-4.4%
-$90,016
110.00-3.5%
+$94,669
111.00-2.6%
-$9,525
112.00-1.8%
+$102,371
113.00-0.9%
+$16,228
114.000.0%
-$848,394
115.000.9%
+$2.9M
116.001.7%
+$68,566
117.002.6%
+$33,471
118.003.5%
+$119,617
119.004.4%
+$111,470
120.005.3%
+$852,761
121.006.1%
+$59,681
122.007.0%
+$38,779
123.007.9%
+$18,305
124.008.8%
+$32,238
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.71
7 Aug
7d
0.54
14 Aug
14d
0.48
21 Aug
21d
0.45
28 Aug
28d
0.43
4 Sep
35d
0.41
11 Sep
42d
0.41
18 Sep
49d
0.37
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
92
94
96
99
101
103
105
107
110
112
114
116
118
121
123
125
127
129
132
134
136
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 1 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.
Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move4.2%
30 Jul
Bullish · 44
4.2% through expiry
4.3% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1112 / 1112
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $714,026 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+34
1W price+4.2%
Call premium60%
Put premium40%
Notional split
C 60% / P 40%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
61/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
5 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 749 contracts traded, $223,560 estimated gross traded notional, and 31% of visible notional.
$223,560
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM
puts cluster with 343 contracts traded, $148,502 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$148,502
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 117 contracts traded, $56,724 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$56,724
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 72 contracts traded, $45,940 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$45,940
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 267 contracts traded, $36,648 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$36,648
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close114.01
1W+4.2%
RS10.0
Fair value+65.8%
Options pressure34
Speculation41
Volatility81
Trend fit61
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:10
Mixed
Pressure 3
Move 7.6%
30 Jul 10:05
Bearish
Pressure -31
Move 6.0%
31 Jul 10:03
Bullish
Pressure 43
Move 4.3%
2 Aug 22:26
Volatility
Pressure 34
Move 8.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 0
Strike88.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 0
Strike89.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts140
Avg IV0.71
Put-call1.10
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts132
Avg IV0.54
Put-call0.31
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts92
Avg IV0.48
Put-call5.94
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV0.45
Put-call0.08
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.01
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.63
Skew0.07
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.57
Skew0.04
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.49
Skew0.03
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.07
4 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.47
Skew0.08
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractEBAY260807P00114000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike114.00
Volume303
OI1951
IV0.71
ContractEBAY260904C00122000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike122.00
Volume296
OI6
IV0.41
ContractEBAY260904C00121000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike121.00
Volume294
OI7
IV0.39
ContractEBAY260807C00130000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike130.00
Volume115
OI18
IV0.37
ContractEBAY260918C00130000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike130.00
Volume102
OI441
IV0.41
ContractEBAY260807C00120000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike120.00
Volume73
OI37
IV0.74
ContractEBAY260821P00117000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike117.00
Volume70
OI-
IV0.43
ContractEBAY260821P00115000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike115.00
Volume57
OI420
IV0.45
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.