Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
QQQ options intelligence
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
44
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 12:05 · partial chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
QQQ currently carries bearish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 1.51.
Expected move
1.1%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
1.51
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.36
Put-side skew
Trend fit
66
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+0.5%
RS 0.0
Expected move
1.1%
Put-call volume
1.36
Volume / OI
1.51
Reference IV
0.15
Max pain
679.00
Underlying
687.99
Nearest expiry
3 Aug 2026
Contracts
2000
Research Brief
QQQ has a bearish chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 680.39–695.59; The largest call open-interest concentration is 730.00; the largest put concentration is 505.00. The most active strike by current volume is 690.00.
Priced range680.39–695.59
Call concentration730.00
Put concentration505.00
Max pain reference679.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 680.39 to 695.59. Max pain at 679.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
680.39687.99 ± 7.60695.59
Confirmation level
A close beyond 695.59 or below 680.39 at the 3 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 44/100
Pressure is 21/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure21 × 42%
+9.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation75 × 22%
+16.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement66 × 26%
+17.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility15 × 10%
+1.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 730.00; the largest put concentration is 505.00. The most active strike by current volume is 690.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
6136
670.00-2.6%
703
3701
675.00-1.9%
382
1940
680.00-1.2%
1057
1075
682.00-0.9%
581
611
683.00-0.7%
539
1024
684.00-0.6%
918
1098
685.00-0.4%
4939
327
686.00-0.3%
663
319
687.00-0.1%
925
435
688.000.0%
640
168
689.000.1%
456
628
690.000.3%
3644
195
691.000.4%
326
191
692.000.6%
426
521
695.001.0%
2996
539
700.001.7%
5438
73
705.002.5%
5612
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile+$376.0MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak690.00+$224.9M
Negative peak660.00-$216.6M
Nearest balance682.77Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
678.00-1.5%
+$10.8M
679.00-1.3%
-$8.9M
680.00-1.2%
+$7.1M
681.00-1.0%
+$4.0M
682.00-0.9%
-$4.9M
683.00-0.7%
+$1.5M
684.00-0.6%
+$13.0M
685.00-0.4%
+$29.6M
686.00-0.3%
+$11.2M
687.00-0.1%
+$11.8M
688.000.0%
+$14.1M
689.000.1%
+$10.5M
690.000.3%
+$224.9M
691.000.4%
+$11.4M
692.000.6%
+$18.7M
693.000.7%
+$60.0M
694.000.9%
+$40.4M
695.001.0%
+$97.1M
696.001.2%
+$34.6M
697.001.3%
+$19.6M
698.001.5%
+$19.0M
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.15
3 Aug
3d
0.19
4 Aug
4d
0.21
5 Aug
5d
0.21
6 Aug
6d
0.23
7 Aug
7d
0.21
10 Aug
10d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
555
595
616
624
632
641
649
657
665
674
682
690
699
707
715
723
732
740
748
785
825
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
1 stored transitions are available, but none had a directional bullish or bearish label.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move0.5%
30 Jul
Mixed · 41
0.5% through expiry
1.3% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain16%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 2000 / 12386
- 16% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $471.7M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · atm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-21
1W price+0.5%
Call premium53%
Put premium47%
Notional split
C 53% / P 47%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
1.51
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
66/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 561320 contracts traded, $228.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 48% of visible notional.
$228.2M
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM
puts cluster with 424045 contracts traded, $182.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 39% of visible notional.
$182.3M
Puts · 0-7 days · OTM
puts cluster with 476667 contracts traded, $34.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$34.0M
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 4431 contracts traded, $18.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$18.2M
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 1745 contracts traded, $5.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$5.1M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close687.99
1W+0.5%
RS0.0
Fair value+33.6%
Options pressure-21
Speculation75
Volatility15
Trend fit66
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:00
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 1.6%
30 Jul 12:52
Mixed
Pressure -5
Move 3.4%
31 Jul 12:22
Mixed
Pressure -9
Move 1.3%
3 Aug 11:05
Bearish
Pressure -21
Move 1.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike495.00
Calls · V 69 · OI 0
Puts · V 91 · OI 5026
Strike500.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 84 · OI 5761
Strike505.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 9
Puts · V 1010 · OI 9606
Strike510.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 833 · OI 936
Strike515.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1977 · OI 23
Strike520.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4780 · OI 2754
Strike525.00
Calls · V 28 · OI 28
Puts · V 4192 · OI 6174
Strike530.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 145 · OI 4813
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Contracts408
Avg IV0.15
Put-call1.06
Expiry4 Aug 2026
Contracts418
Avg IV0.19
Put-call1.49
Expiry5 Aug 2026
Contracts344
Avg IV0.21
Put-call1.38
Expiry6 Aug 2026
Contracts344
Avg IV0.21
Put-call0.88
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts412
Avg IV0.23
Put-call2.24
Skew
Call/put IV balance
3 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.17
Skew0.04
4 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.17
Put IV0.21
Skew0.04
5 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.18
Put IV0.23
Skew0.05
6 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.19
Put IV0.24
Skew0.05
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.25
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractQQQ260807P00660000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike660.00
Volume98777
OI52782
IV0.28
ContractQQQ260803C00690000
SideCall
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Strike690.00
Volume53296
OI3644
IV0.14
ContractQQQ260807P00645000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike645.00
Volume51240
OI56563
IV0.31
ContractQQQ260803C00700000
SideCall
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Strike700.00
Volume33630
OI5438
IV0.12
ContractQQQ260803P00680000
SidePut
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Strike680.00
Volume29797
OI1940
IV0.18
ContractQQQ260803P00685000
SidePut
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Strike685.00
Volume28718
OI1098
IV0.17
ContractQQQ260803C00695000
SideCall
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Strike695.00
Volume27793
OI2996
IV0.13
ContractQQQ260803C00688000
SideCall
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Strike688.00
Volume26619
OI640
IV0.14
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Market Watch
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Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.