Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
BKNG options intelligence
Booking Holdings Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
55
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:00 · partial chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
BKNG currently carries volatility options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
9.2%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.89
Put-side skew
Trend fit
93
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+8.7%
RS -8.2
Expected move
9.2%
Put-call volume
1.89
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.76
Max pain
182.50
Underlying
177.46
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
2000
Research Brief
BKNG has a volatility chain read with 55/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 161.11–193.81; The largest call open-interest concentration is 195.00; the largest put concentration is 175.00. The most active strike by current volume is 190.00.
Priced range161.11–193.81
Call concentration195.00
Put concentration175.00
Max pain reference182.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 161.11 to 193.81. Max pain at 182.50 sits inside that range, 2.8% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
161.11177.46 ± 16.35193.81
Confirmation level
A close beyond 193.81 or below 161.11 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 55/100
Pressure is 31/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure31 × 42%
+13.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement93 × 26%
+24.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility90 × 10%
+9.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 195.00; the largest put concentration is 175.00. The most active strike by current volume is 190.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
203
150.00-15.5%
2
188
160.00-9.8%
35
349
165.00-7.0%
21
223
170.00-4.2%
21
889
175.00-1.4%
313
453
180.001.4%
236
561
182.502.8%
960
197
185.004.2%
397
15
187.505.7%
466
421
190.007.1%
695
323
192.508.5%
344
295
195.009.9%
1077
63
197.5011.3%
254
178
200.0012.7%
1051
2
202.5014.1%
201
21
205.0015.5%
318
0
210.0018.3%
481
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.76
31 Jul
1d
0.53
7 Aug
8d
0.56
14 Aug
15d
0.49
21 Aug
22d
0.48
28 Aug
29d
0.45
4 Sep
36d
0.39
11 Sep
43d
0.41
18 Sep
50d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
145
150
155
160
163
165
170
173
175
178
180
185
188
190
195
198
200
203
205
210
213
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain47%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 2000 / 4236
- 47% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4.8M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-31
1W price+8.7%
Call premium55%
Put premium45%
Notional split
C 55% / P 45%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
93/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 529 contracts traded, $770942 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$770942
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1234 contracts traded, $565260 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$565260
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 618 contracts traded, $455110 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$455110
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 2091 contracts traded, $429233 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$429233
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1112 contracts traded, $348368 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$348368
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close192.90
1W+8.7%
RS-8.2
Fair value+12.0%
Options pressure-31
Speculation41
Volatility90
Trend fit93
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:01
Mixed
Pressure 3
Move 12.6%
30 Jul 10:01
Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 5.3%
31 Jul 10:00
Volatility
Pressure -31
Move 9.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts96
Avg IV0.76
Put-call2.32
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts114
Avg IV0.53
Put-call0.97
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts110
Avg IV0.56
Put-call1.75
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts96
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.92
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts72
Avg IV0.48
Put-call19.95
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.73
Skew0.24
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.68
Skew0.13
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.70
Skew0.29
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.48
Skew0.07
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.38
Skew-0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractBKNG260821C00200000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike200.00
Volume744
OI1039
IV0.44
ContractBKNG260731P00190000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike190.00
Volume742
OI421
IV0.49
ContractBKNG260731P00185000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike185.00
Volume615
OI197
IV0.69
ContractBKNG260904P00130000
SidePut
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike130.00
Volume442
OI-
IV0.43
ContractBKNG260828P00130000
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike130.00
Volume440
OI28
IV0.48
ContractBKNG260821P00175000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike175.00
Volume322
OI673
IV0.48
ContractBKNG260731C00200000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike200.00
Volume307
OI1051
IV0.53
ContractBKNG260731P00195000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike195.00
Volume287
OI295
IV0.73
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.