Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
PSX options intelligence
Phillips 66 options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
46
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 06:47 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
PSX currently carries bullish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
5.1%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.52
Call-side skew
Trend fit
69
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-0.0%
RS 27.4
Expected move
5.1%
Put-call volume
0.52
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.43
Max pain
200.00
Underlying
206.77
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1362
Research Brief
PSX has a bullish chain read with 46/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 196.24–217.30; The largest call open-interest concentration is 205.00; the largest put concentration is 160.00. The most active strike by current volume is 207.50.
Priced range196.24–217.30
Call concentration205.00
Put concentration160.00
Max pain reference200.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 196.24 to 217.30. Max pain at 200.00 sits inside that range, 3.3% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
196.24206.77 ± 10.53217.30
Confirmation level
A close beyond 217.30 or below 196.24 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 46/100
Pressure is 34/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure34 × 42%
+14.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement69 × 26%
+17.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility51 × 10%
+5.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 205.00; the largest put concentration is 160.00. The most active strike by current volume is 207.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
114
160.00-22.6%
0
15
175.00-15.4%
2
18
180.00-12.9%
8
101
190.00-8.1%
18
50
195.00-5.7%
41
1
197.50-4.5%
6
53
200.00-3.3%
82
16
205.00-0.9%
128
66
207.500.4%
31
32
210.001.6%
9
1
212.502.8%
55
4
215.004.0%
73
2
217.505.2%
29
0
220.006.4%
40
0
225.008.8%
17
0
230.0011.2%
10
0
232.5012.4%
10
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.43
7 Aug
7d
0.37
14 Aug
14d
0.38
21 Aug
21d
0.35
28 Aug
28d
0.37
4 Sep
35d
0.37
11 Sep
42d
0.36
18 Sep
49d
0.35
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
170
175
183
185
188
190
195
198
200
205
208
210
215
218
220
225
228
230
233
240
245
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1362 / 1362
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.6M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+34
1W price-0.0%
Call premium84%
Put premium16%
Notional split
C 84% / P 16%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
69/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
5 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 64 contracts traded, $284280 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$284280
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 54 contracts traded, $182390 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$182390
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 211 contracts traded, $155840 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$155840
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 297 contracts traded, $129646 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$129646
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 123 contracts traded, $111965 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$111965
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close206.77
1W-0.0%
RS27.4
Fair value+58.3%
Options pressure34
Speculation41
Volatility51
Trend fit69
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:05
Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 3.5%
30 Jul 10:04
Bullish
Pressure 38
Move 2.9%
31 Jul 10:01
Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 2.6%
1 Aug 03:37
Bullish
Pressure 54
Move 2.2%
1 Aug 05:47
Bullish
Pressure 34
Move 5.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts98
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.28
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts96
Avg IV0.37
Put-call0.41
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts106
Avg IV0.38
Put-call0.30
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts76
Avg IV0.35
Put-call0.01
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.37
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.43
Skew-
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.39
Skew0.03
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.40
Skew0.03
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.37
Skew0.01
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.39
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPSX260918P00195000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike195.00
Volume264
OI122
IV0.38
ContractPSX260918C00220000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike220.00
Volume178
OI477
IV0.35
ContractPSX260828C00210000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike210.00
Volume120
OI11
IV0.34
ContractPSX260807C00207500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike207.50
Volume80
OI31
IV0.42
ContractPSX270115P00160000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike160.00
Volume77
OI181
IV0.40
ContractPSX260807C00220000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike220.00
Volume49
OI40
IV0.43
ContractPSX260821C00210000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike210.00
Volume34
OI694
IV0.36
ContractPSX260821C00207500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike207.50
Volume32
OI63
IV0.36
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.