Ticker Options Intelligence

BLLN options intelligence

BillionToOne, Inc. Class A Common Stock options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 50 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 10:26 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

BLLN currently carries volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 14.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 14.9%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.39

Call-side skew

Trend fit 70

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +9.9%

Sharemaestro weekly context

Expected move 14.9%
Put-call volume 0.39
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.77
Max pain 120.00
Underlying 138.60
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 238

Research Brief

BLLN has a volatility chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 118.00–159.20; The largest call open-interest concentration is 140.00; the largest put concentration is 110.00. The most active strike by current volume is 135.00.

Priced range118.00–159.20
Call concentration140.00
Put concentration110.00
Max pain reference120.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 118.00 to 159.20. Max pain at 120.00 sits inside that range, 13.4% below spot.

Spot Max pain
118.00138.60 ± 20.60159.20
Confirmation level

A close beyond 159.20 or below 118.00 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 50/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 43/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure43 × 42%
+18.2

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation21 × 22%
+4.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement70 × 26%
+18.1

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility94 × 10%
+9.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score50.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 140.00; the largest put concentration is 110.00. The most active strike by current volume is 135.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
15
75.00-45.9%
0
12
80.00-42.3%
0
12
85.00-38.7%
20
28
95.00-31.5%
21
30
100.00-27.8%
9
6
105.00-24.2%
7
408
110.00-20.6%
5
34
115.00-17.0%
13
22
120.00-13.4%
39
40
125.00-9.8%
29
21
130.00-6.2%
15
10
135.00-2.6%
5
1
140.001.0%
103
3
145.004.6%
6
0
150.008.2%
42
0
155.0011.8%
1
1
165.0019.0%
6
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.08× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.77 21 Aug 21d
0.70 18 Sep 49d
0.71 18 Dec 140d
0.71 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
238 / 238
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

88/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $267370 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+43
1W price+9.9%
Call premium80%
Put premium20%
Notional split C 80% / P 20% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 70/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 5 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 28 contracts traded, $120445 estimated gross traded notional, and 45% of visible notional.
$120445
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 19 contracts traded, $30410 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$30410
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 4 contracts traded, $24870 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$24870
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 16 contracts traded, $23065 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$23065
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 11 contracts traded, $16765 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$16765

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close138.60
1W+9.9%
RS-
Fair value+45.1%
Options pressure43
Speculation21
Volatility94
Trend fit70

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 14.9% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.77 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.39 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:41 Volatility
Pressure 89
Move 17.2%
29 Jul 23:06 Mixed
Pressure -14
Move 17.1%
30 Jul 23:25 Mixed
Pressure -15
Move 19.4%
31 Jul 17:19 Bearish
Pressure -22
Move 17.1%
1 Aug 09:26 Volatility
Pressure 43
Move 14.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 15
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 12
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 20
Puts · V 0 · OI 12

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.77
Put-call0.69
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.70
Put-call0.09
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.71
Put-call0.14
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts52
Avg IV0.71
Put-call0.35

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.74
Put IV0.80
Skew0.06
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.67
Put IV0.75
Skew0.08
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.70
Put IV0.77
Skew0.07
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.68
Put IV0.76
Skew0.08

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractBLLN270319C00190000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike190.00
Volume17
OI158
IV0.68
ContractBLLN270319C00120000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike120.00
Volume12
OI98
IV0.65
ContractBLLN260821C00135000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike135.00
Volume10
OI5
IV0.76
ContractBLLN270319P00110000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike110.00
Volume10
OI4
IV0.77
ContractBLLN260821C00140000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike140.00
Volume9
OI103
IV0.77
ContractBLLN260821P00125000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike125.00
Volume8
OI40
IV0.80
ContractBLLN260918C00150000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike150.00
Volume7
OI9
IV0.68
ContractBLLN260821P00130000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike130.00
Volume5
OI21
IV0.78