Ticker Options Intelligence

AXON options intelligence

Axon Enterprise Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 37 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 04:40 · partial chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

AXON currently carries mixed options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 2.7%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.30

Put-side skew

Trend fit 71

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +5.1%

RS -14.4

Expected move 2.7%
Put-call volume 1.30
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.51
Max pain 520.00
Underlying 502.34
Nearest expiry 31 Jul 2026
Contracts 2000

Research Brief

AXON has a mixed chain read with 37/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 488.80–515.88; The largest call open-interest concentration is 650.00; the largest put concentration is 400.00. The most active strike by current volume is 515.00.

Priced range488.80–515.88
Call concentration650.00
Put concentration400.00
Max pain reference520.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 31 Jul

Options imply 488.80 to 515.88. Max pain at 520.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
488.80502.34 ± 13.54515.88
Confirmation level

A close beyond 515.88 or below 488.80 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 37/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 12/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure13 × 42%
+5.3

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement71 × 26%
+18.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility47 × 10%
+4.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score37.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 650.00; the largest put concentration is 400.00. The most active strike by current volume is 515.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
205
400.00-20.4%
10
86
450.00-10.4%
6
79
475.00-5.4%
0
93
480.00-4.4%
4
105
500.00-0.5%
41
116
515.002.5%
9
24
520.003.5%
269
8
525.004.5%
28
14
530.005.5%
69
67
535.006.5%
41
19
540.007.5%
37
54
550.009.5%
89
39
565.0012.5%
241
1
580.0015.5%
85
0
600.0019.4%
104
0
620.0023.4%
92
0
650.0029.4%
575
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.73× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.51 31 Jul 0d
1.30 7 Aug 7d
1.04 14 Aug 14d
0.94 21 Aug 21d
0.86 28 Aug 28d
0.81 4 Sep 35d
0.79 11 Sep 42d
0.77 18 Sep 49d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

405
415
430
440
450
465
470
475
483
488
495
500
505
520
530
540
555
565
575
590
600
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Good

B79/100
Retained chain93%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Retained chain subset
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
2000 / 2144
  • 93% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

78/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.1M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-12
1W price+5.1%
Call premium41%
Put premium59%
Notional split C 41% / P 59% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 71/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 26 contracts traded, $434635 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$434635
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM calls cluster with 505 contracts traded, $409925 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$409925
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM puts cluster with 156 contracts traded, $329270 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$329270
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 45 contracts traded, $285030 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$285030
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM puts cluster with 183 contracts traded, $275772 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$275772

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close527.76
1W+5.1%
RS-14.4
Fair value+12.6%
Options pressure-13
Speculation41
Volatility47
Trend fit71

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 2.7% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.51 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.30 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:12 Volatility
Pressure -17
Move 10.4%
30 Jul 10:09 Bullish
Pressure 32
Move 7.1%
31 Jul 03:41 Mixed
Pressure -5
Move 6.1%
31 Jul 12:26 Mixed
Pressure 18
Move 5.3%
31 Jul 13:37 Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 5.1%
1 Aug 03:40 Mixed
Pressure -13
Move 2.7%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike240.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike250.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike260.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike270.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike280.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike290.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike300.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike305.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts216
Avg IV0.51
Put-call1.11
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts238
Avg IV1.30
Put-call0.82
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts214
Avg IV1.04
Put-call5.79
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts190
Avg IV0.94
Put-call0.53
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts114
Avg IV0.86
Put-call1.35

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.04
Put IV0.41
Skew0.37
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.22
Put IV1.25
Skew0.03
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.03
Put IV1.04
Skew0.01
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.92
Put IV0.95
Skew0.03
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.85
Put IV0.86
Skew0.01

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractAXON260814P00390000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike390.00
Volume187
OI131
IV1.12
ContractAXON260807P00500000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike500.00
Volume117
OI49
IV1.26
ContractAXON260807C00645000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike645.00
Volume114
OI4
IV1.29
ContractAXON260807C00800000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike800.00
Volume96
OI5
IV0.90
ContractAXON260731P00515000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike515.00
Volume93
OI116
IV0.19
ContractAXON260807P00425000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike425.00
Volume55
OI10
IV1.44
ContractAXON260918P00530000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike530.00
Volume30
OI36
IV0.77
ContractAXON260731P00520000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike520.00
Volume26
OI24
IV0.12