Ticker Options Intelligence

CPNG options intelligence

Coupang LLC options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 52 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:05 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

CPNG currently carries volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 6.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.05

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.15

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +5.5%

RS -34.7

Expected move 6.2%
Put-call volume 0.15
Volume / OI 0.05
Reference IV 1.40
Max pain 16.00
Underlying 15.50
Nearest expiry 31 Jul 2026
Contracts 882

Research Brief

CPNG has a volatility chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 14.54–16.46; The largest call open-interest concentration is 16.00; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 16.00.

Priced range14.54–16.46
Call concentration16.00
Put concentration15.00
Max pain reference16.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 31 Jul

Options imply 14.54 to 16.46. Max pain at 16.00 sits inside that range, 3.2% above spot.

Spot Max pain
14.5415.50 ± 0.9616.46
Confirmation level

A close beyond 16.46 or below 14.54 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 52/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 83/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure83 × 42%
+34.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility81 × 10%
+8.1

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score51.9Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 16.00; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 16.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
38
13.00-16.1%
23
91
14.00-9.7%
24
391
14.50-6.5%
5
470
15.00-3.2%
145
278
15.500.0%
121
280
16.003.2%
2453
182
16.506.5%
1420
113
17.009.7%
744
23
17.5012.9%
447
305
18.0016.1%
165
110
18.5019.4%
248
14
19.0022.6%
363
2
19.5025.8%
337
16
20.0029.0%
477
1
20.5032.3%
123
0
21.5038.7%
183
0
22.0041.9%
106
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.46× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.40 31 Jul 1d
0.91 7 Aug 8d
0.83 14 Aug 15d
0.69 21 Aug 22d
0.74 28 Aug 29d
0.63 4 Sep 36d
0.48 11 Sep 43d
0.60 18 Sep 50d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

13
13
14
14
15
15
16
16
17
17
18
18
19
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
882 / 882
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

83/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.5M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+83
1W price+5.5%
Call premium86%
Put premium14%
Notional split C 86% / P 14% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.05 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 18953 contracts traded, $1.9M estimated gross traded notional, and 54% of visible notional.
$1.9M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 3477 contracts traded, $755313 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$755313
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 1212 contracts traded, $210546 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$210546
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM calls cluster with 4600 contracts traded, $157254 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$157254
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM puts cluster with 611 contracts traded, $118962 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$118962

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close16.35
1W+5.5%
RS-34.7
Fair value-25.8%
Options pressure83
Speculation41
Volatility81
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.2% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 1.40 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.15 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.05 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:14 Mixed
Pressure 2
Move 3.7%
30 Jul 10:11 Bullish
Pressure 74
Move 3.7%
31 Jul 10:05 Volatility
Pressure 83
Move 6.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike5.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 10
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike8.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike9.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 12
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.50
Calls · V 8 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 7 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.50
Calls · V 14 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV1.40
Put-call0.29
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.91
Put-call0.89
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.83
Put-call0.25
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts94
Avg IV0.69
Put-call0.48
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.74
Put-call0.26

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.67
Put IV0.46
Skew-0.20
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.86
Put IV0.85
Skew-0.01
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.78
Put IV0.76
Skew-0.02
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.71
Put IV0.69
Skew-0.02
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.75
Put IV1.42
Skew0.67

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCPNG260918C00018000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike18.00
Volume12225
OI2482
IV0.60
ContractCPNG260918C00016000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike16.00
Volume6131
OI512
IV0.62
ContractCPNG260731C00016000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike16.00
Volume3559
OI2453
IV0.75
ContractCPNG261120C00016000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike16.00
Volume1776
OI277
IV0.62
ContractCPNG270219P00015000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike15.00
Volume825
OI880
IV0.56
ContractCPNG270219C00017000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike17.00
Volume825
OI871
IV0.56
ContractCPNG260807P00013000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike13.00
Volume507
OI161
IV0.92
ContractCPNG260731P00014500
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike14.50
Volume354
OI391
IV1.06