Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
BWIN options intelligence
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
50
Market data through 5 Aug 2026
Checked 6 Aug 2026 00:26 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
BWIN currently carries volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 14.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.12.
Expected move
14.1%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.12
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.35
Call-side skew
Trend fit
45
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+4.8%
RS 1.7
Expected move
14.1%
Put-call volume
0.35
Volume / OI
0.12
Reference IV
0.79
Max pain
25.00
Underlying
27.74
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
49
Research Brief
BWIN has a volatility chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 23.84–31.64; The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 35.00.
Priced range23.84–31.64
Call concentration35.00
Put concentration25.00
Max pain reference25.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 23.84 to 31.64. Max pain at 25.00 sits inside that range, 9.9% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
23.8427.74 ± 3.9031.64
Confirmation level
A close beyond 31.64 or below 23.84 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 50/100
Pressure is 59/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure59 × 42%
+24.9
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation19 × 22%
+4.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement45 × 26%
+11.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 35.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
10
12.50-54.9%
0
5
20.00-27.9%
1
12
22.50-18.9%
5
18
25.00-9.9%
22
3
30.008.1%
595
0
35.0026.2%
1182
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$74,789Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak30.00+$41,375
Negative peak12.50-$128
Nearest balance20.61Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-91.0%
+$4
7.50-73.0%
-$46
10.00-64.0%
-$83
12.50-54.9%
-$128
15.00-45.9%
+$161
17.50-36.9%
+$1,979
20.00-27.9%
-$86
22.50-18.9%
+$268
25.00-9.9%
+$3,910
30.008.1%
+$41,375
35.0026.2%
+$27,436
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.79
21 Aug
16d
0.68
18 Sep
44d
0.64
18 Dec
135d
0.32
15 Jan
163d
0.56
19 Mar
226d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
23
25
30
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 5 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 49 / 49
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $139,282 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+59
1W price+4.8%
Call premium87%
Put premium13%
Notional split
C 87% / P 13%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.12
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
45/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 129 contracts traded, $101,150 estimated gross traded notional, and 73% of visible notional.
$101,150
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 12 contracts traded, $9,990 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$9,990
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 11 contracts traded, $6,490 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$6,490
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 13 contracts traded, $4,520 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$4,520
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $4,360 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$4,360
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
6 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 6 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close27.74
1W+4.8%
RS1.7
Fair value-12.4%
Options pressure59
Speculation19
Volatility96
Trend fit45
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:02
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 19.7%
30 Jul 10:50
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 21.8%
30 Jul 15:22
Volatility
Pressure 67
Move 21.2%
30 Jul 15:40
Volatility
Pressure 67
Move 21.2%
30 Jul 19:50
Volatility
Pressure 71
Move 19.2%
31 Jul 12:57
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 17.6%
31 Jul 14:27
Volatility
Pressure 72
Move 16.5%
1 Aug 01:57
Volatility
Pressure 87
Move 17.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 8 · OI 10
Strike20.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Strike22.50
Calls · V 5 · OI 5
Puts · V 1 · OI 12
Strike25.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 22
Puts · V 3 · OI 18
Strike30.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 595
Puts · V 5 · OI 3
Strike35.00
Calls · V 65 · OI 1182
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV0.79
Put-call0.24
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.68
Put-call2.80
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts7
Avg IV0.64
Put-call0.01
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts15
Avg IV0.32
Put-call2.56
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts1
Avg IV0.56
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.81
Put IV0.89
Skew0.08
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.76
Put IV0.66
Skew-0.10
18 Dec 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.60
Put IV0.06
Skew-0.54
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.06
Skew-0.55
19 Mar 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV0.56
Put IV-
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractBWIN260918P00007500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI23
IV2.58
ContractBWIN270115P00010000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI4
IV1.23
ContractBWIN261218P00015000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI3
IV1.03
ContractBWIN270115P00017500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI2
IV0.82
ContractBWIN260918C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.00
ContractBWIN270115C00017500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.79
ContractBWIN270115C00010000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractBWIN261218C00022500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike22.50
Volume100
OI107
IV0.64
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.