Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
MKL options intelligence
Markel Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
40
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 20:48 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
MKL currently carries bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
3.6%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.20
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-5.6%
RS -12.3
Expected move
3.6%
Put-call volume
0.20
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.19
Max pain
1950.00
Underlying
1882.34
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
664
Research Brief
MKL has a bullish chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 1815.34–1949.34; The largest call open-interest concentration is 2100.00; the largest put concentration is 1720.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1900.00.
Priced range1815.34–1949.34
Call concentration2100.00
Put concentration1720.00
Max pain reference1950.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 1815.34 to 1949.34. Max pain at 1950.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
1815.341882.34 ± 67.001949.34
Confirmation level
A close beyond 1949.34 or below 1815.34 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 40/100
Pressure is 75/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure75 × 42%
+31.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation25 × 22%
+5.4
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility27 × 10%
+2.7
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 2100.00; the largest put concentration is 1720.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1900.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
11
1680.00-10.7%
0
11
1700.00-9.7%
0
15
1720.00-8.6%
0
13
1730.00-8.1%
0
4
1800.00-4.4%
0
7
1850.00-1.7%
0
2
1900.000.9%
0
0
1940.003.1%
0
2
1950.003.6%
1
3
1970.004.7%
1
1
2000.006.3%
3
0
2020.007.3%
3
0
2040.008.4%
4
0
2080.0010.5%
3
0
2100.0011.6%
9
1
2120.0012.6%
6
0
2180.0015.8%
4
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.19
21 Aug
21d
0.19
18 Sep
49d
0.20
16 Oct
77d
0.21
15 Jan
168d
0.22
21 May
294d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
1580
1620
1680
1720
1750
1770
1790
1820
1840
1870
1890
1910
1940
1960
1990
2010
2040
2100
2140
2200
2240
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 664 / 664
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $357924 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+75
1W price-5.6%
Call premium98%
Put premium2%
Notional split
C 98% / P 2%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $312800 estimated gross traded notional, and 87% of visible notional.
$312800
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $14875 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$14875
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $13098 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$13098
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $8576 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$8576
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 5 contracts traded, $8575 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$8575
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close1882.34
1W-5.6%
RS-12.3
Fair value+7.8%
Options pressure75
Speculation25
Volatility27
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:16
Bullish
Pressure 45
Move 5.6%
30 Jul 10:12
Bullish
Pressure 45
Move 5.1%
31 Jul 10:05
Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 5.9%
31 Jul 16:16
Bullish
Pressure 58
Move 6.3%
1 Aug 19:48
Bullish
Pressure 75
Move 3.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1580.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike1600.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike1620.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike1640.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike1660.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike1680.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike1700.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike1720.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 15
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts98
Avg IV0.19
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts100
Avg IV0.19
Put-call0.63
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts154
Avg IV0.20
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts162
Avg IV0.21
Put-call-
Expiry21 May 2027
Contracts150
Avg IV0.22
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.19
Skew-0.03
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.20
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.19
Put IV0.20
Skew0.01
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.21
Skew0.01
21 May 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.23
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMKL260821C01900000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1900.00
Volume5
OI-
IV0.20
ContractMKL260821C01940000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1940.00
Volume4
OI-
IV0.20
ContractMKL260918P01800000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike1800.00
Volume3
OI1
IV0.20
ContractMKL260918C02140000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2140.00
Volume3
OI-
IV0.23
ContractMKL260918P01700000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike1700.00
Volume2
OI1
IV0.27
ContractMKL260918C02000000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2000.00
Volume2
OI1
IV0.20
ContractMKL260918C01960000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike1960.00
Volume2
OI-
IV0.20
ContractMKL260821C02240000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2240.00
Volume1
OI1
IV0.21
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
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Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.