Ticker Options Intelligence

BUSE options intelligence

First Busey Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 53 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 20:54 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

BUSE currently carries volatility options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 22.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.22.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 22.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.22

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.08

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +3.4%

RS 12.6

Expected move 22.6%
Put-call volume 0.08
Volume / OI 0.22
Reference IV 0.78
Max pain 25.00
Underlying 29.85
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 13

Research Brief

BUSE has a volatility chain read with 53/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 23.10–36.60; The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00.

Priced range23.10–36.60
Call concentration30.00
Put concentration25.00
Max pain reference25.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 23.10 to 36.60. Max pain at 25.00 sits inside that range, 16.2% below spot.

Spot Max pain
23.1029.85 ± 6.7536.60
Confirmation level

A close beyond 36.60 or below 23.10 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 53/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 97/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure97 × 42%
+40.7

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation15 × 22%
+3.3

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility95 × 10%
+9.5

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score53.4Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
15.00-49.7%
0
0
22.50-24.6%
0
2
25.00-16.2%
4
0
30.000.5%
8
1
35.0017.3%
6
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks · 100% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$6,164Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak25.00+$2,671
Negative peak-No negative strike
Nearest balance-Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
25.00-16.2%
+$2,671
30.000.5%
+$1,644
35.0017.3%
+$429
40.0034.0%
+$1,420
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.06× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.78 21 Aug 21d
0.50 20 Nov 112d
0.38 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

25
30
35
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
13 / 13
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $8,442 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · atm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+97
1W price+3.4%
Call premium99%
Put premium1%
Notional split C 99% / P 1% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.22 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ATM
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 15 contracts traded, $3,868 estimated gross traded notional, and 46% of visible notional.
$3,868
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $2,210 estimated gross traded notional, and 26% of visible notional.
$2,210
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $1,240 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$1,240
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $1,020 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$1,020
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $75 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$75

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close30.86
1W+3.4%
RS12.6
Fair value+35.6%
Options pressure97
Speculation15
Volatility95
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 22.6% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.78 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.08 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.22 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:58 Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 8.5%
30 Jul 10:48 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 9.7%
31 Jul 10:32 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 5.8%
31 Jul 15:53 Volatility
Pressure 97
Move 22.6%
31 Jul 19:54 Volatility
Pressure 97
Move 22.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike25.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 4
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike30.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 1

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts8
Avg IV0.78
Put-call0.21
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts3
Avg IV0.50
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts2
Avg IV0.38
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.92
Put IV0.61
Skew-0.31
20 Nov 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV-
Skew-
19 Feb 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV-
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractBUSE261120C00025000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI70
IV0.33
ContractBUSE260821P00035000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI1
IV2.41
ContractBUSE260821P00022500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.25
ContractBUSE260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractBUSE261120C00030000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike30.00
Volume13
OI28
IV0.54
ContractBUSE260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume6
OI8
IV0.92
ContractBUSE260821C00035000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume6
OI6
IV0.82
ContractBUSE261120C00035000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike35.00
Volume6
OI5
IV0.61